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QUEST III: an estimated DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy

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  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Jan in 't Veld

Abstract

This paper develops a DSGE model for an open economy and estimates it on euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features nominal and real frictions, as well as financial frictions in the form of liquidity constrained households. The model incorporates active monetary and fiscal policy rules (for government consumption, investment, transfers and wage taxes) and can be used to analyse the effectiveness of stabilisation policies. To capture the unit root character of macroeconomic time-series we allow for stochastic trend in TFP, but instead of filtering data prior to estimation, we estimate the model in growth rates and stationary nominal ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "QUEST III: an estimated DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 335, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0335
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Michael J. Artis & Luca Onorante, 2007. "The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Cobham (ed.), The Travails of the Eurozone, chapter 6, pages 123-145, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    5. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 435-470, December.
    6. Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States," Working Papers 2006/11, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    7. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    9. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2003. "Erratum to "European inflation dynamics": [European Economic Review 45 (2001), 1237-1270]," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 759-760, August.
    10. Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte, 2006. "The estimated general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: the case of the euro area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 142, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 566-584, May.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Ten Years of EMU – Achievements, Weaknesses, Challenges," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 14(1), pages 49-72, April.
    5. Varga, Janos & in 't Veld, Jan, 2011. "A model-based analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy expenditure 2000-06: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 647-663, January.
    6. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2022. "Centralised and Decentralised Approaches to Multi-Country Macroeconometric Modelling at the Commission of the European Communities: The Short-Lived EUROLINK Model," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22081, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    7. Francesca D'Auria & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Janos Varga, 2009. "A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states - Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 392, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Francesca D'Auria & Kieran Mc Morrow & Karl Pichelmann, 2008. "Economic impact of migration flows following the 2004 EU enlargement process - A model based analysis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 349, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Berger, Johannes & Strohner, Ludwig, 2020. "Documentation of the PUblic Policy Model for Austria and other European countries (PUMA)," Research Papers 11, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Dumitru BELDIMAN & Alia Gabriela DUȚĂ, 2020. "Possibilities to Quantify the Impact of Accessing Structural Funds and Cohesion Using Econometric Models," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(22), pages 21-33, November.
    11. Alban Moura, 2020. "LED: An estimated DSGE model of the Luxembourg economy for policy analysis," BCL working papers 147, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    12. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "How to close the productivity gap between the US and Europe: A quantitative assessment using a semi-endogenous growth model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 399, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Bernadette Biatour & Chantal Kegels & Jan van der Linden & Dirk Verwerft, 2017. "Working Paper 01-17 - Public Investment in Belgium - Current State and Economic Impact," Working Papers 1701, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    15. Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2009. "A model-based assessment of the macroeconomic impact of EU structural funds on the new Member States," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 371, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Michal Andrle & Patrick Blagrave & Pedro Espaillat & Ms. Keiko Honjo & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & René Lalonde & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Eleonara Mavroeidi & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursu, 2015. "The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM," IMF Working Papers 2015/064, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Martin Aarøe Christensen, 2015. "A CGE model with ICT and R&D-driven endogenous growth: A detailed model description," JRC Research Reports JRC97908, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Philip Arestis, 2015. "Coordination of fiscal with monetary and financial stability policies can better cure unemployment," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 233-247, April.
    19. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 351, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 397, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Domestic Financial Frictions: Implications for International Risk Sharing, Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 70348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Martin Aarøe Christensen, 2015. "A CGE model with ICT and R&D-driven endogenous growth: A general description," JRC Research Reports JRC97902, Joint Research Centre.
    23. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    QUEST; QUEST model; DGSE; DSGE modelling; fiscal policy; stabilisation policies; euro area; Ratto ; Roeger ; Jan in 't Veld;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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