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Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States

  • Michel Juillard
  • Ondrej Kamenik
  • Michael Kumhof
  • Douglas Laxton

This paper develops a DSGE model for the United States that features rational inflation inertia and persistence. The model is estimated with Bayesian-estimation techniques and time-varying inflation objectives to account for movements between regimes. After showing that the model produces forecasts that are quite competitive with other methods we use the forecasts of the model to generate more robust Hodrick-Prescott filter end-of-sample estimates of the output gap.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2006/11.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/11
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