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Evaluating Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated DSGE Model

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Listed author(s):
  • Andrea Tambalotti

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Andrea Ferrero

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Vasco Curdia

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

The empirical DSGE literature pays surprisingly little attention to the behavior of the monetary authority. Alternative policy rule specifications abound but their relative merit is rarely discussed. We provide some of this discussion by comparing the fit of a large set of interest rate rules (44 in total), which we estimate as part of a simple New Keynesian model. We find that specifications in which monetary policy responds to inflation and to deviations of output from its efficient level — which would prevail in the absence of distortions — have the worst fit within the set we consider. Policies that respond to measures of the output gap based on statistical filters perform better, but the best fitting rules are those that also track the evolution of the model-consistent efficient real interest rate.

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File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2010/paper_402.pdf
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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 402.

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Date of creation: 2010
Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:402
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Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
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  1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
  2. Anna Almosova, 2016. "Labor Market Frictions and Monetary Policy Design," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 383-414, 03.
  4. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2014. "Inflation dynamics: The role of public debt and policy regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 93-108.
  5. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
  6. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Andrea Ajello, 2016. "Financial Intermediation, Investment Dynamics, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2256-2303, August.
  8. Scott Brave & Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "The Chicago Fed DSGE model," Working Paper Series WP-2012-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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