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Evaluating interest rate rules in an estimated DSGE model

Author

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  • Vasco Cúrdia
  • Andrea Ferrero
  • Ging Cee Ng
  • Andrea Tambalotti

Abstract

The empirical DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) literature pays surprisingly little attention to the behavior of the monetary authority. Alternative policy rule specifications abound, but their relative merit is rarely discussed. We contribute to filling this gap by comparing the fit of a large set of interest rate rules (fifty-five in total), which we estimate within a simple New Keynesian model. We find that specifications in which monetary policy responds to inflation and to deviations of output from its efficient level—the one that would prevail in the absence of distortions—have the worst fit within the set we consider. Policies that respond to measures of the output gap based on statistical filters perform better, but the best-fitting rules are those that also track the evolution of the model-consistent efficient real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero & Ging Cee Ng & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Evaluating interest rate rules in an estimated DSGE model," Staff Reports 510, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:510
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    2. Andrea Ajello, 2016. "Financial Intermediation, Investment Dynamics, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 2256-2303.
    3. Anna Almosova, 2016. "Labor Market Frictions and Monetary Policy Design," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 383-414, March.
    5. Nils Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, pages 1-80.
    7. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2014. "Inflation dynamics: The role of public debt and policy regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 93-108.
    8. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of Federal Reserve forward guidance," Working Paper Series WP-2012-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
    11. repec:eee:wdevel:v:97:y:2017:i:c:p:330-348 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Stochastic analysis ; Monetary policy ; Keynesian economics ; Interest rates ; Gross domestic product;

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