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Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Interest

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  • MATTHEW CANZONERI
  • ROBERT CUMBY
  • BEHZAD DIBA

Abstract

It is most important for monetary policy to track the natural rate of interest when interest rates take large and sustained swings away from their long‐run equilibrium values. Here, we study two models: a standard New Keynesian model and one in which government bonds provide liquidity. Policy rules that cannot track the natural rate perform poorly in both models, but are especially bad in the second because of sustained movements in the natural rate induced by fiscal shocks. First difference rules, on the other hand, do surprisingly well. When model uncertainty is taken into account, the dominance of the first difference rule is even more pronounced.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 383-414, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:2-3:p:383-414
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12180
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    Cited by:

    1. Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Karoglou, Michail & Binner, Jane M., 2019. "Structural changes and the role of monetary aggregates in the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 100-107.
    2. Solikin M Juhro, 2016. "Comments on "A spectral perspective on natural interest rates in Asia-Pacific: changes and possible drivers"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 151-156, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Feng Zhu, 2016. "A spectral perspective on natural interest rates in Asia-Pacific: changes and possible drivers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 63-149, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Carla Soares & Nikolay Iskrev & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2021. "Indicators of monetary policy stance and financial conditions: an overview," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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