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A Monetary Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles

Listed author(s):
  • Bansal, Ravi
  • Coleman, Wilbur John, II

This paper develops and estimates a monetary model that offers an explanation of some puzzling features of observed returns on equities and default-free bonds. The key feature of the model is that some assets other than money play a special role in facilitating transactions. The model is capable of producing a low risk-free rate, a high equity premium, and an average positive relationship between maturity and term premium for default-free bonds. The model's implications for the joint distribution of asset returns, velocity, inflation, money growth, and consumption growth are also compared to the behavior of these variables in the U.S. economy. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/262056
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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 104 (1996)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 1135-1171

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:104:y:1996:i:6:p:1135-71
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  1. Hodrick, Robert J & Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Lucas, Deborah, 1991. "The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 358-384, April.
  2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  3. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C., 1993. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate : Matching the moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-45, February.
  4. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-232.
  5. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
  6. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December.
  7. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
  9. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
  10. Marshall, David A, 1992. " Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1315-1342, September.
  11. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
  12. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
  13. Ackert, Lucy F & Smith, Brian F, 1993. " Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1147-1160, September.
  14. Fried, Joel & Howitt, Peter, 1983. "The Effects of Inflation on Real Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 968-980, December.
  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
  16. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "The role of overlapping-generations models in monetary economics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 9-44, January.
  17. Dunn, Kenneth B. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 1986. "Modeling the term structure of interest rates under non-separable utility and durability of goods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 27-55, September.
  18. Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1990. "Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Policy-Function Iteration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 27-29, January.
  19. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
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