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Global macroeconomic effects of exiting from unconventional monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Pietro Cova

    () (Banca d'Italia)

  • Patrizio Pagano

    () (The World Bank)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    () (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the international macroeconomic spillovers from the Eurosystem’s expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) under alternative assumptions as regards (i) the unwinding of the asset positions accumulated under the APP and (ii) the normalization of the US monetary policy stance. We simulate a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, calibrated to the Euro area (EA), the US, China, Japan, and the ‘rest of the world’ (RW). Our results are as follows. First, APP expansionary spillovers are dampened if the Eurosystem brings forward the unwinding of its bond holdings because of the lower increase in EA aggregate demand and, therefore, EA imports. The RW is the region most affected because it has the greatest trade integration with the EA. Second, if the US monetary authority announces that it will hold the policy rate constant for a shorter period of time – which dampens the increase in US aggregate demand and, therefore, US imports from the EA – then US spillovers to the EA, while still expansionary, as in the case of a slower normalization of the monetary policy stance, are more modest.

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2016. "Global macroeconomic effects of exiting from unconventional monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1078, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1078_16
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1078/en_tema_1078.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2017. "Secular stagnation, R&D, public investment and monetary policy: a global-model perspective," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1156, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; open-economy macroeconomics; non-standard monetary policy; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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