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Macroeconomic effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy and early exit. A model-based evaluation

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Listed:
  • Lorenzo Burlon

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Gerali

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of the Eurosystem’s expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) under alternative strategies as regards (i) the unwinding of asset positions accumulated under the APP and (ii) communication of current and future paths of the policy rate (forward guidance). To this purpose, we simulate a New Keynesian model of the euro area. Our results are as follows. First, as the monetary authority brings forward the selling of long-term sovereign bonds, the stimulus from the APP on inflation and economic activity is correspondingly reduced. In particular, if the bonds are sold immediately after purchases end, the impact on inflation is negligible. Second, if the monetary authority communicates that it will hold the policy rate constant for one year instead of two, the APP is less effective, and the inflation increase is halved. Third, the subdued impact of the APP associated with an early exit from the programme delays the return to a standard monetary policy regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2016. "Macroeconomic effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy and early exit. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1074, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1074_16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    17. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1015, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Bartocci & Lorenzo Burlon & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of non-standard monetary policy measures in the euro area: the role of corporate bond purchases," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1136, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Lorenzo Burlon & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2017. "Public investment and monetary policy stance in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1150, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Michele Loberto & Francesco Zollino, 2016. "Housing and credit markets in Italy in times of crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1087, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2016. "Non-standard monetary policy, asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1089, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; open-economy macroeconomics; non-standard monetary policy; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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