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Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program

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  • W. Arrata
  • B. Nguyen

Abstract

We use new daily security-level data and test the impact of the Eurosystem's Public sector purchase program (PSPP) on bond returns in the French bond market. We investigate three possible types of supply shocks: related to the cumulative past purchases (“stock”) since the start of the program, the transactions themselves on the day of the purchase (“flow”), and the variation in the expected total size of the program (“expected stock”). Our results show that having purchased 10% of a bond outstanding correlates with a decrease in yield of about -13 bps to -26 bps on average in the first year of implementation of the program, with bigger effects in the most illiquid segments. Set aside very particular conditions, we don't find any significant supplemental effect from flows, presumably in line with the market neutrality objective of the Eurosystem. We then focus on the European bond sell-off period during the spring-summer 2015, and show it was associated with a reduction of the total size of the program expected by market participants, suggesting an Odyssean vs Delphic type of issue for the communication on asset purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:623
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    Cited by:

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    2. Martijn Boermans & Robert Vermeulen, 2018. "Quantitative easing and preferred habitat investors in the euro area bond market," DNB Working Papers 586, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Siekmann, Helmut & Wieland, Volker, 2020. "The ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court concerning the public sector purchase program: A practical way forward," IMFS Working Paper Series 140, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Diana Bonfim & André Capela, 2020. "The effect of corporate bond purchases by the ECB on firms’ borrowing costs," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Penalver, Adrian & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Funaki, Yukihiko & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2020. "A quantitative easing experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. William Arrata & Benoit Nguyen & Imene Rahmouni-Rousseau & Miklos Vari, 2018. "The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2018/258, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Clemens Bonner & Eward Brouwer & Iman van Lelyveld, 2018. "Drivers of market liquidity - Regulation, monetary policy or new players?," DNB Working Papers 605, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2020. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Eser, Fabian & Lemke, Wolfgang & Nyholm, Ken & Radde, Sören & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2019. "Tracing the impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme on the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2293, European Central Bank.
    10. Galema, Rients & Lugo, Stefano, 2021. "When central banks buy corporate bonds: Target selection and impact of the European Corporate Sector Purchase Program," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Jakl Jakub, 2019. "The True Nature of the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing Policy," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(2), pages 95-117, June.
    12. Martijn Boermans & Viacheslav Keshkov, 2018. "The impact of the ECB asset purchases on the European bond market structure: Granular evidence on ownership concentration," DNB Working Papers 590, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Cezar, Rafael & Silvestrini, Maéva, 2021. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the International Investment Position," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 241-263.
    14. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    15. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen & I. Rahmouni-Rousseau & M. Vari, 2017. "Eurosystem’s asset purchases and money market rates," Working papers 652, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    QE; asset purchase programs; bond supply; unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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