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Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program

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  • W. Arrata
  • B. Nguyen

Abstract

We use new daily security-level data and test the impact of the Eurosystem's Public sector purchase program (PSPP) on bond returns in the French bond market. We investigate three possible types of supply shocks: related to the cumulative past purchases (“stock”) since the start of the program, the transactions themselves on the day of the purchase (“flow”), and the variation in the expected total size of the program (“expected stock”). Our results show that having purchased 10% of a bond outstanding correlates with a decrease in yield of about -13 bps to -26 bps on average in the first year of implementation of the program, with bigger effects in the most illiquid segments. Set aside very particular conditions, we don't find any significant supplemental effect from flows, presumably in line with the market neutrality objective of the Eurosystem. We then focus on the European bond sell-off period during the spring-summer 2015, and show it was associated with a reduction of the total size of the program expected by market participants, suggesting an Odyssean vs Delphic type of issue for the communication on asset purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:623
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    Cited by:

    1. R.J. Galema & S. Lugo, 2017. "When central banks buy corporate bonds: : Target selection and impact of the European Corporate Sector Purchase Program," Working Papers 17-16, Utrecht School of Economics.
    2. Martijn Boermans & Viacheslav Keshkov, 2018. "The impact of the ECB asset purchases on the European bond market structure: Granular evidence on ownership concentration," DNB Working Papers 590, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen & I. Rahmouni-Rousseau & M. Vari, 2017. "Eurosystem’s asset purchases and money market rates," Working papers 652, Banque de France.
    4. Clemens Bonner & Eward Brouwer & Iman van Lelyveld, 2018. "Drivers of market liquidity - Regulation, monetary policy or new players?," DNB Working Papers 605, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Eser, Fabian & Lemke, Wolfgang & Nyholm, Ken & Radde, Sören & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2019. "Tracing the impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme on the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2293, European Central Bank.
    6. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme," Working Paper Series 2106, European Central Bank.
    7. A. Penalver & N. Hanaki & E. Akiyama & Y. Funaki & R. Ishikawa, 2017. "A Quantitative Easing Experiment," Working papers 651, Banque de France.
    8. Rafael Cezar & Maéva Silvestrini, 2018. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position," Working papers 701, Banque de France.
    9. Martijn Boermans & Robert Vermeulen, 2018. "Quantitative easing and preferred habitat investors in the euro area bond market," DNB Working Papers 586, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    QE; asset purchase programs; bond supply; unconventional monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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