IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/18-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Romanos Priftis
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Shock decompositions suggest a positive contribution of ECB QE to annual euro area output growth and inflation in 2015-16 of up to 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points (pp) in the linearised version of the model. Allowing for an occasionally binding zero-bound constraint by using piecewise linear solution techniques raises the positive impact to up to 0.7 and 0.8 pp.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Hohberger & Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Staff Working Papers 18-11, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:18-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/swp2018-11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefania D’Amico & William English & David López‐Salido & Edward Nelson, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes: Rationale and Effects," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 415-446, November.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    4. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    5. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    6. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    7. Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2016. "The post-crisis slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 21-41.
    8. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    9. Kristina Bluwstein & Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Paolo Gelain & Marcin Kolasa, 2020. "Multiperiod Loans, Occasionally Binding Constraints, and Monetary Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1691-1718, October.
    10. Ferre De Graeve & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Forward Guidance, Quantitative Easing, or both?," Working Paper Research 305, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Hohberger, Stefan & Priftis, Romanos & Vogel, Lukas, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Harrison, Richard, 2012. "Asset purchase policy at the effective lower bound for interest rates," Bank of England working papers 444, Bank of England.
    13. Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 289-315, November.
    14. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2017. "Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 205-242, January.
    15. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 41-59.
    16. Kolasa, Marcin & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2020. "International spillovers of quantitative easing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Matteo Falagiarda, 2014. "Evaluating quantitative easing: a DSGE approach," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 302-327.
    18. Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "The ECB’s asset purchase programme: A model-based evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 136-140.
    19. Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Tobin's Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Michael A. S. Joyce & Ana Lasaosa & Ibrahim Stevens & Matthew Tong, 2011. "The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 113-161, September.
    21. Kristina Bluwstein & Fabio Canova, 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor? The International Effects of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 69-120, September.
    22. Philip Liu & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 391-404, July.
    23. Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2019. "Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(4), pages 831-858, June.
    24. Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Domestic and international macroeconomic effects of the Eurosystem expanded asset purchase programme," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1036, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Harrison, Richard, 2017. "Optimal quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 678, Bank of England.
    26. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    27. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2017. "Collateral constraints and macroeconomic asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 28-49.
    28. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    29. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    30. Diego Anzoategui & Diego Comin & Mark Gertler & Joseba Martinez, 2019. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 67-110, July.
    31. Ellison, Martin & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2014. "Unconventional government debt purchases as a supplement to conventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 199-217.
    32. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Juillard, Michel & Karamé, Fréderic & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Mutschler, Willi & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébasti, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Mar 2021.
    33. Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2016. "The post-crisis slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 21-41.
    34. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    35. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    37. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    38. Sami Alpanda & Serdar Kabaca, 2020. "International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 342-391.
    39. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2013. "QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3. . . : A Framework for Analyzing Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 5-53, January.
    40. Carlo Altavilla & Giacomo Carboni & Roberto Motto, 2021. "Asset Purchase Programs and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-48, October.
    41. Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2016. "The Portfolio Balance Mechanism and QE in the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(S1), pages 84-105, September.
    42. Jochen Lüdering & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "Monetary Policy on Twitter and its Effect on Asset Prices: Evidence from Computational Text Analysis," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201612, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    43. Grégory Claeys & Alvaro Leandro, 2016. "The European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme- limits and risks," Policy Contributions 12814, Bruegel.
    44. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kabaca, Serdar & Maas, Renske & Mavromatis, Kostas & Priftis, Romanos, 2023. "Optimal quantitative easing in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2021. "How loose, how tight? A measure of monetary and fiscal stance for the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1536-1556.
    4. Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2016. "The Portfolio Balance Mechanism and QE in the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(S1), pages 84-105, September.
    5. Hohberger, Stefan & Priftis, Romanos & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "The distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of the ECB’s evolving QE programme: a model-based analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 823-845, November.
    7. Harrison, Richard, 2017. "Optimal quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 678, Bank of England.
    8. Sami Alpanda & Uluc Aysun & Serdar Kabaca, 2022. "International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers," Working Papers 2022-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    9. Cantore, Cristiano & Meichtry, Pascal, 2023. "Unwinding quantitative easing: state dependency and household heterogeneity," Bank of England working papers 1030, Bank of England.
    10. Michael T. Kiley, 2018. "Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(S1), pages 21-49, September.
    11. Serdar Kabaca, 2016. "Quantitative Easing in a Small Open Economy: An International Portfolio Balancing Approach," Staff Working Papers 16-55, Bank of Canada.
    12. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    13. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    14. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Matteo Falagiarda, 2014. "Evaluating quantitative easing: a DSGE approach," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 302-327.
    16. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    17. Sami Alpanda & Serdar Kabaca, 2020. "International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 342-391.
    18. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    19. Florian Urbschat & Sebastian Watzka, 2017. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 6709, CESifo.
    20. Harrison, Richard, 2024. "Optimal quantitative easing and tightening," Bank of England working papers 1063, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Interest rates; Transmission of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:18-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.