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The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model

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  • Kollmann, Robert
  • Pataracchia, Beatrice
  • Raciborski, Rafal
  • Ratto, Marco
  • Roeger, Werner
  • Vogel, Lukas

Abstract

The global financial crisis (2008-09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences -- in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more protracted. We estimate a three-region (EA, US and Rest of World) New Keynesian DSGE model (using quarterly data for 1999-2014) to quantify the drivers of the divergent EA and US adjustment paths. Our results suggest that financial shocks were key drivers of the 2008-09 Great Recession, for both the EA and the US. The post-2009 slump in the EA mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment, linked to the continuing poor health of the EA financial system. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US. The financial shocks identified by the model are consistent with observed performance indicators of the EA and US banking systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 11121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11121
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 47-93.
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    Cited by:

    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    2. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-08, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. repec:eee:dyncon:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:140-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Philipp Pfeiffer, 2017. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy," 2017 Meeting Papers 324, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Maximilian Goedl, 2017. "The Sovereign-Bank Interaction in the Eurozone Crisis," Graz Economics Papers 2017-10, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    6. Hetzel, Robert L., 2017. "What Remains of Milton Friedman's Monetarism?," Working Paper 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    8. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cozzi, Guido & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Marco, Ratto, 2017. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy," Working Papers 2017-01, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    10. HOHBERGER, Stefan; PRIFTIS, Romanos; VOGEL, Lukas, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the Euro area : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Economics Working Papers ECO2017/04, European University Institute.
    11. Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers 331, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 11 Mar 2016.
    12. Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2017. "Drivers of the Post-Crisis Slump in the Eurozone and the US," MPRA Paper 78826, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hetzel, Robert L., 2016. "What Caused the Great Recession in the Eurozone?," Working Paper 16-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    14. Albonico, Alice & Paccagnini, Alessia & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2017. "Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 140-161.
    15. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2017 Meeting Papers 1489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Kollmann, Robert, 2017. "The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US," MPRA Paper 78233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Serpieri, Carolina, 2018. "Comparing Central Europe and the Baltic macro-economies: A Bayesian approach," EconStor Preprints 175242, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demand and supply shocks; estimated DSGE model; Euro Area; financial shocks; Post-crisis slump; United States;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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