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Global banks, financial shocks and international business cycles: evidence from an estimated model

  • Kollmann, Robert

This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using U.S. and Euro area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key U.S. and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for U.S. real activity. During the Great Recession (2007–09), banking shocks accounted for about 20 percent of the fall in U.S. and EA GDP, and for more than half of the fall in EA investment and employment.

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File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2012/0120.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 120.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:120
Note: Published as: Kollmann, Robert (2013), "Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 45 (s2): 159-195.
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/
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  1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2009. "Investment Shocks and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Banks and the Financial Crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 464, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 77-81, May.
  4. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
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  8. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
  13. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  14. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2011. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 329-360 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2011. "Stabilization Policy and Boom-Bust Cycles - Monetary and Macro-Prudential Rules," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  24. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
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  27. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  31. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
  32. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7084aa4m is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Negro, Marco Del & Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Ferrero, Andrea & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2011. "The great escape? A quantitative evaluation of the Fed’s liquidity facilities," Staff Reports 520, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 May 2016.
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  38. Geweke, John, 2001. "Bayesian econometrics and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 11-15, January.
  39. Kollmann, Robert, 2010. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 41, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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