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Fiscal Policy, Banks and the Financial Crisis

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  • Robert Kollmann
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Jan in't Veld

Abstract

This paper studies the effectiveness of Euro Area (EA) fiscal policy, during the recent financial crisis, using an estimated New Keynesian model with a bank. A key dimension of policy in the crisis was massive government support for banks—that dimension has so far received little attention in the macro literature. We use the estimated model to analyze the effects of bank asset losses, of government support for banks, and other fiscal stimulus measures, in the EA. Our results suggest that support for banks had a stabilizing effect on EA output, consumption and investment. Increased government purchases helped to stabilize output, but crowded out consumption. Higher transfers to households had a positive impact on private consumption, but a negligible effect on output and investment. Banking shocks and increased government spending explain half of the rise in the public debt/GDP ratio since the onset of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Banks and the Financial Crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 464, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0464
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    Cited by:

    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    2. Bokan, N. & Gerali, A. & Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2018. "EAGLE-FLI: A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 249-280.
    3. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    4. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    5. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J., 2014. "Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-73.
    7. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 47-93.
    8. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "Discussion of "Financial Intermediation in a Global Environment" (Victoria Nuguer)," MPRA Paper 70191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    10. Thomas Brand & Fabien Tripier, 2014. "Risk shocks and divergence between the Euro area and the US," Working Papers 2014-11, CEPII research center.
    11. Juan Equiza Goni, 2014. "Sovereign Debt in the U.S. and Growth Expectations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-25, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Estimation of non-linear DSGE models made easy: taking second-order model approximations to the data (with an application to a DSGE model with a banking sector)," 2013 Meeting Papers 1255, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Wijesiri, Mahinda, 2016. "Weathering the storm: ownership structure and performance of microfinance institutions in the wake of the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 238-247.
    14. Adnan Efendic & Naida Trkic-Izmirlija, 2013. "Effects of the global economic crisis and public spending on income distribution in Bosnia and Herzegovina," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 108, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    15. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2017. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Working Papers 22, European Stability Mechanism.
    17. Jin Cheng & Meixing Dai & Frédéric Dufourt, 2016. "Banking Crisis, Moral Hazard and Fiscal Policy Responses," Working Papers of BETA 2016-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    18. Kollmann, Robert, 2012. "Global Banks, Fiscal Policy and International Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 69887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Etro, Federico, 2016. "Endogenous market structures in the credit market and Ricardian equivalence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 14-18.
    20. Paredes, Joan & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2014. "Fiscal policy analysis in the euro area: Expanding the toolkit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 800-823.
    21. Balteanu, Irina & Erce, Aitor, 2014. "Bank crises and sovereign defaults in emerging markets: exploring the links," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 184, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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