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When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?

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  • Nora Traum

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Shu-Chun Yang

    (Congressional Budget Office)

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between inequality and education funding in a model of probabilistic voting over public education spending where the private option is available. A change in inequality can have opposite effects at different income levels: higher inequality decreases public spending per student and increases enrollment in public schools in poor economies, while the opposite holds in the rich ones. A change in the tax base can also have non-monotonic effects. We also study the implications of different voting participation across income groups. The predictions of the model are supported by U.S. school district-level data.

Suggested Citation

  • Nora Traum & Shu-Chun Yang, 2010. "When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?," CAEPR Working Papers 2010-006, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2010006
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    Cited by:

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    3. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2021. "Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from U.S. federal procurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 178-194.
    4. Zharku Lutfi, 2018. "(Un)Productive Use of Public Debt in Kosovo," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 97(2), pages 18-37, December.
    5. Amir Kia, 2020. "Impact of Public Debt, Deficit and Debt Financing on Private Investment in a Large Country: Evidence from the United States," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 139-161, December.
    6. Edward Gamber & John Seliski, 2019. "The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01," Working Papers 55018, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Chang, Long, 2021. "Monetary–fiscal policy regime and macroeconomic dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 121-135.
    8. Wang, Ren & Hou, Jie & He, Xiaobei, 2017. "Real estate price and heterogeneous investment behavior in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-280.
    9. Anna Kormilitsina & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1571-1616, October.
    10. Willem Vanlaer & Mattia Picarelli & Wim Marneffe, 2021. "Debt and Private Investment: Does the EU Suffer from a Debt Overhang?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 789-820, September.
    11. Bi, Huixin & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2016. "Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 142-157.
    12. Dennis Ridley, 2021. "Capitalism/Democracy/Rule of Law Interactions and Implications for Entrepreneurship and Per Capita Real Gross Domestic Product Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(1), pages 384-411, March.
    13. Aliya Algozhina, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rule, Exchange Rate Regime, and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality in a Developing Oil Economy," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp572, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    14. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    15. Borsoi, Nicolas & Teles, Vladimir K, 2020. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bad Times: Does the Nature of a Recession Matter?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(1), August.
    16. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.
    17. Hur, Joonyoung & Lee, Kang Koo, 2017. "Fiscal financing and the efficacy of fiscal policy in Korea: An empirical assessment with comparison to the U.S. evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 473-486.
    18. Liaqat, Zara, 2019. "Does government debt crowd out capital formation? A dynamic approach using panel VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 86-90.
    19. Hur, Joonyoung & Rhee, Wooheon, 2020. "Multipliers of expected vs. unexpected fiscal shocks: The case of Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 244-254.
    20. Ferraro, Domenico & Peretto, Pietro F., 2020. "Innovation-led growth in a time of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    21. Bermperoglou, Dimitrios & Pappa, Evi & Vella, Eugenia, 2017. "The government wage bill and private activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-47.
    22. Fløgstad, Cathrin, 2017. "Domestic bond markets in emerging economies: Crowding in or crowding out?," Working Papers in Economics 15/17, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    23. Bhattarai, Keshab & Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid, 2017. "Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 321-338.
    24. Dioikitopoulos, Evangelos V., 2018. "Dynamic adjustment of fiscal policy under a debt crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-276.

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