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Does Government Spending Crowd In Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area

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  • Günter Coenen
  • Mr. Roland Straub

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the effects of government spending shocks on private consumption within an estimated New-Keynesian DSGE model of the euro area featuring non-Ricardian households. Employing Bayesian inference methods, we show that the presence of non- Ricardian households is in general conducive to raising the level of consumption in response to government spending shocks when compared with the benchmark specification without non-Ricardian households. However, we find that there is only a fairly small chance that government spending shocks crowd in consumption, mainly because the estimated share of non-Ricardian households is relatively low, but also because of the large negative wealth effect induced by the highly persistent nature of government spending shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Günter Coenen & Mr. Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd In Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2005/159, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/159
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; government spending;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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