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On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model

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  • Sarah Zubairy

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate on fiscal multipliers, in the context of a structural model. I estimate a micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, that features a rich fiscal policy block and a transmission mechanism for government spending shocks, using Bayesian techniques for US data. I find the multiplier for government spending to be 1.12, and the maximum impact is when the spending shock hits the economy. In addition, the estimated model predicts a positive but small response of private consumption to increased government spending. The multipliers for labor and capital tax on impact are 0.13 and 0.33, respectively. The effects of tax cuts, on the other hand, take time to build, and exceed the stimulative effects of higher spending at horizons of 12-20 quarters. The expansionary effects of tax cuts are primarily driven by the response of investment. I carry out several counterfactual exercises to show how alternative financing methods and expected monetary policy have consequences for the size of fiscal multipliers. I also simulate the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 in the estimated model.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Zubairy, 2010. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model," Staff Working Papers 10-30, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:10-30
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    Cited by:

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    3. Hashmat Khan & Abeer Reza, 2017. "House Prices and Government Spending Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1247-1271, September.
    4. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2014. "Fiscal Policy And Lending Relationships," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 696-712, April.
    5. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    6. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Patrizio Tirelli & Nicola Acocella, 2015. "The Comeback of Inflation as an Optimal Public Finance Tool," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(1), pages 43-70, January.
    7. Traum, Nora & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2011. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-war U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 140-164, January.
    8. Gnocchi, Stefano & Hauser, Daniela & Pappa, Evi, 2016. "Housework and fiscal expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 94-108.
    9. Joab Dan VALDIVIA CORIA & Daney David VALDIVIA CORIA, 2017. "Impulse on the Aggregate Demand in Bolivia through the Coordination of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Crisis Time," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 156-173, June.
    10. Ítalo Pedrosa & Maryse Farhi, 2015. "Macroeconomic theory in the aftermath of the crisis: mainstream and new Keynesianism [Macroeconomic theory in the aftermath of the crisis: mainstream and new Keynesianism]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(2), pages 237-260, May-Augus.
    11. Leith, Campbell & Moldovan, Ioana & Rossi, Raffaele, 2015. "Monetary and fiscal policy under deep habits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 55-74.
    12. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2012. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 50-64.
    13. Punnoose Jacob, 2015. "Deep Habits, Price Rigidities, and the Consumption Response to Government Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 481-510, March.
    14. Huixin Bi & Ms. Susan S. Yang & Ms. Wenyi Shen, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/049, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    16. Airaudo, Marco & Olivero, María Pía, 2014. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Counter-Cyclical Credit Spreads," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2014-1, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    17. Barbara Rossi & Sarah Zubairy, 2011. "What Is the Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks in Explaining U.S. Macroeconomic Fluctuations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1247-1270, September.
    18. Cloyne, James S, 2011. "Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes," MPRA Paper 41689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman, 2014. "Aspects of Macroeconomic Policy Combinations and Their Effects on Financial Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 95-118, March.
    20. Nora Traum & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2010. "Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment? A Bayesian DSGE Approach: Working Paper 2010-02," Working Papers 21397, Congressional Budget Office.
    21. Eric Sims & Jonathan Wolff, 2018. "The Output And Welfare Effects Of Government Spending Shocks Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1403-1435, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Economic models;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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