On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model
This paper contributes to the debate on fiscal multipliers, in the context of a structural model. I estimate a micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, that features a rich fiscal policy block and a transmission mechanism for government spending shocks, using Bayesian techniques for US data. I find the multiplier for government spending to be 1.12, and the maximum impact is when the spending shock hits the economy. In addition, the estimated model predicts a positive but small response of private consumption to increased government spending. The multipliers for labor and capital tax on impact are 0.13 and 0.33, respectively. The effects of tax cuts, on the other hand, take time to build, and exceed the stimulative effects of higher spending at horizons of 12-20 quarters. The expansionary effects of tax cuts are primarily driven by the response of investment. I carry out several counterfactual exercises to show how alternative financing methods and expected monetary policy have consequences for the size of fiscal multipliers. I also simulate the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 in the estimated model.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada|
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004.
"On the fit and forecasting performance of New Keynesian models,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2004-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2005. "On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2005. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New-Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 0491, European Central Bank.
- Eric Leeper & Todd Walker & Susan Yang SHu-Chun, 2009.
"Fiscal Foresight And Information Flows,"
Caepr Working Papers
2009-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 14630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Todd B. Walker & Eric M. Leeper & Susan S. Yang, 2012. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," IMF Working Papers 12/153, International Monetary Fund.
- Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2011. "Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 16951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:10-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.