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Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison

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  • ANNA KORMILITSINA
  • SARAH ZUBAIRY

Abstract

The inability of a simple real business cycle model to predict a rise in consumption in response to increased government expenditures, observed in many empirical studies, has stimulated the development of alternative theories of government spending shocks. Using the Bayesian approach, we evaluate the quantitative performance of five extant models, and find that neither of the considered transmission mechanisms for government spending helps improve the fit of the baseline model. Moreover, we find that consumption decreases in all estimated models in response to a rise in government spending.

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  • Anna Kormilitsina & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1571-1616, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:50:y:2018:i:7:p:1571-1616
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12555
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    2. Albonico, Alice & Paccagnini, Alessia & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2017. "Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 140-161.
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    4. Rebei Nooman, 2021. "Evaluating Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Government Spending Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 253-280, January.
    5. Henrique S. Basso & Omar Rachedi, 2021. "The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 110-141, October.
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    7. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Luca Pieroni, 2021. "Can public spending boost private consumption?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1275-1313, November.
    8. Marco Lorusso & Luca Pieroni, 2019. "Disentangling Civilian and Military Spending Shocks: A Bayesian DSGE Approach for the US Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-41, September.
    9. Jacob, Punnoose & Uusküla, Lenno, 2019. "Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 67-89.
    10. Okano, Mitsuhiro, 2021. "Optimal monetary policy in a two-country new Keynesian model with deep consumption habits," MPRA Paper 110259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Anna Kormilitsina, 2016. "Is Government Spending Predetermined? A Test of Identification for Fiscal Policy Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 1607, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    12. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2014. "Deep versus superficial habit: It’s all in the persistence," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0714, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    13. Rozina Shaheen, 2019. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Labor Supply under a Time-Varying Structural VAR Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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