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On the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier in the Euro Area

  • Fève, Patrick
  • Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume

This article addresses the existence of a wide range of estimated government spending multipliers in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Our estimation results and counterfactual exercises provide evidence that omitting the interactions of key ingredients at the estimation stage (such as Edgeworth complementarity/subtitutability between private consumption and government expenditures, endogenous government spending policy and general time nonseparable preferences) paves the way for potentially large biases. We argue that uncertainty on the quantitative assessments of fiscal programmes could partly originate from these biases.

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Paper provided by Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse in its series IDEI Working Papers with number 776.

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Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision: Nov 2013
Publication status: Published in Oxford Economic Papers, vol.�67, n°3, juillet 2015, p.�531-552.
Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:27173
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  1. S. Rao Aiyagari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Smets, F. & Sahuc, J-G., 2007. "Differences in Interest Rate Policy at the ECB and the Fed: An Investigation with a Medium-Scale DSGE Model," Working papers 182, Banque de France.
  3. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2012. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1483, European Central Bank.
  4. Finn, Mary G, 1998. "Cyclical Effects of Government's Employment and Goods Purchases," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 635-57, August.
  5. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2012. "A Pitfall with DSGE-Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," IDEI Working Papers 708, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  6. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Medium Run Redux," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 695-727, June.
  7. Patrick F?ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2013. "A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 141-78, October.
  8. Florin O. Bilbiie, 2009. "Nonseparable Preferences, Fiscal Policy Puzzles, and Inferior Goods," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 443-450, 03.
  9. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
  10. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 435-470, December.
  11. Christopher Otrok, 2000. "On Measuring the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1094, Econometric Society.
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  14. Lee E. Ohanian & Andrea Raffo, 2011. "Aggregate Hours Worked in OECD Countries: New Measurement and Implications for Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 17420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in ‘t Veld & René Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & Günter Coenen & Susanna, 2010. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," IMF Working Papers 10/73, International Monetary Fund.
  16. John Bailey Jones, 1999. "Has Fiscal Policy Helped Stabilize the Postwar U.S. Economy?," Discussion Papers 99-03, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  18. Heaton, John, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Asset Pricing with Temporally Dependent Preference Specifications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 681-717, May.
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