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On the size of the government spending multiplier in the euro area

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  • Patrick Fève
  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

Abstract

This article addresses the existence of a wide range of estimated government spending multipliers in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Our estimation results and counter-factual exercises provide evidence that omitting the interactions of key ingredients at the estimation stage (such as Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability between private consumption and government expenditures, endogenous government spending policy, and general habits in consumption) paves the way for potentially large biases. We argue that uncertainty on the quantitative assessments of fiscal programmes could partly originate from these biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Fève & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2015. "On the size of the government spending multiplier in the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 531-552.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:3:p:531-552.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpv025
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    3. Campagne, Benoît & Poissonnier, Aurélien, 2018. "Structural reforms in DSGE models: Output gains but welfare losses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 397-421.
    4. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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