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A Pitfall with DSGE–Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers

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  • Patrick Fève

    (TSE, Université de Toulouse and Banque de France)

  • Julien Matheron
  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

Abstract

In this paper, we study issues related to the estimation of long–run government spending multiplier (GSM) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) context. We stress a potential source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of (i) Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures and (ii) countercyclical government expenditures. We find that the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and the cyclicality of policy interact through cross–equation restrictions, paving the way for potential biases. It turns out that the GSM increases with the degree of Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Thus, any bias in the degree of Edgeworth complementarity translates into a biased GSM.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2011. "A Pitfall with DSGE–Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," 2011 Meeting Papers 136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:136
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecolet:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:121-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Patrick Fève & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2017. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 704-718, April.
    3. Marcello M. Estevão & Issouf Samaké, 2013. "The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback," IMF Working Papers 13/136, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Anna Kormilitsina, 2016. "Is Government Spending Predetermined? A Test of Identification for Fiscal Policy Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 1607, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    5. Anna Kormilitsina & Sarah Zubairy, 2015. "Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison," EcoMod2015 8646, EcoMod.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:140-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Patrick Fève & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2015. "On the size of the government spending multiplier in the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 531-552.
    8. Patrick Fève & Olivier Pierrard, 2017. "Financial Regulation and Shadow Banking: A Small-Scale DSGE Perspective," BCL working papers 111, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    9. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2014. "Deep versus superficial habit: It’s all in the persistence," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0714, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
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    22. Albonico, Alice & Paccagnini, Alessia & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2017. "Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 140-161.
    23. Iwata, Yasuharu, 2013. "Two fiscal policy puzzles revisited: New evidence and an explanation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-207.
    24. Emmanouil Kitsios & Manasa Patnam, 2016. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity," IMF Working Papers 16/13, International Monetary Fund.
    25. repec:cai:recosp:reco_hs02_0159 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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