IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-05528164.html

The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Alban Moura

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This paper uses an estimated sticky-price model to identify endogenous movements in government consumption in the U.S. economy. Two feedback effects are considered, one originating from the stock of public debt and one from contemporaneous output. The data provide significant statistical evidence in favor of such mechanisms, even though a subsample analysis reveals that their strength may have decreased over time. Monte Carlo simulations assessing a DSGE model with exogenous spending and various identified VARs suggest that failing to account for these feedbacks may induce a severe upward bias in estimated multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Alban Moura, 2026. "The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the US," Working Papers hal-05528164, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05528164
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05528164v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-05528164v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05528164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.