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The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the US

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  • Moura, Alban

Abstract

This paper uses an estimated sticky-price model to identify endogenous movements in government consumption in the U.S. economy. Two feedback effects are considered, one originating from the stock of public debt and one from contemporaneous output. The data provide significant statistical evidence in favor of such mechanisms, even though a subsample analysis reveals that their strength may have decreased over time. Monte Carlo simulations assessing a DSGE model with exogenous spending and various identified VARs suggest that failing to account for these feedbacks may induce a severe upward bias in estimated multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Moura, Alban, 2015. "The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the US," TSE Working Papers 15-610, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:29919
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Patrick F?ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2013. "A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 141-178, October.
    3. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    4. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    5. repec:nbr:nberch:13344 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gunter Coenen & Roland Straub & Mathias Trabandt, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 71-76, May.
    7. Ryan Chahrour & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "A Model-Based Evaluation of the Debate on the Size of the Tax Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 28-45, May.
    8. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
    9. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2011. "A Pitfall with DSGE–Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," 2011 Meeting Papers 136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
    11. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111429 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2012. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Indeterminacy in Postwar US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 173-178, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government spending multiplier; endogenous fiscal policy; structural econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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