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Measuring the effects of fiscal policy

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  • Bouakez, Hafedh
  • Chihi, Foued
  • Normandin, Michel

Abstract

Measuring the effects of discretionary fiscal policy is both difficult and controversial, as some explicit or implicit identifying assumptions need to be made to isolate exogenous and unanticipated changes in taxes and government spending. Studies based on structural vector autoregressions typically achieve identification by restricting the contemporaneous interaction of fiscal and non-fiscal variables in a rather arbitrary way. In this paper, we relax those restrictions and identify fiscal policy shocks by exploiting the conditional heteroscedasticity of the structural disturbances. We use this methodology to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks in the U.S. before and after 1979. Our results show substantive differences in the economy׳s response to government spending and tax shocks across the two periods. Importantly, we find that increases in public spending are, in general, more effective than tax cuts in stimulating economic activity. A key contribution of this study is to provide a formal test of the identifying restrictions commonly used in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouakez, Hafedh & Chihi, Foued & Normandin, Michel, 2014. "Measuring the effects of fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 123-151.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:123-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.08.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Guillard & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2017. "Public Investment, Time to Build, and the Zero Lower Bound," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 60-79, January.
    2. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    3. Stefan Bruder, 2018. "Inference for structural impulse responses in SVAR-GARCH models," ECON - Working Papers 281, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. Francisco Castro & Daniel Garrote, 2015. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in the EMU and differences with the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1365, December.
    5. repec:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:399-410 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nooman Rebei, 2017. "Evaluating Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Government Spending Shocks," IMF Working Papers 17/49, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bouakez, Hafedh & Chihi, Foued & Normandin, Michel, 2014. "Fiscal policy and external adjustment: New evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-20.
    8. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:1:p:118-135 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Government spending; Taxes; Primary deficit; Structural vector auto-regression; Identification;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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