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Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Sebastian Gechert
  • Ansgar Rannenberg

Die Studie untersucht, ob fiskalische Multiplikatoreffekte im Abschwung systematisch größer sind als im Aufschwung. Dazu wird eine Meta-Regressions-Analyse durchgeführt, die einen neuartigen Datensatz von 98 empirischen Studien mit über 1800 Beobachtungen von Multiplikatoreffekten auswertet und für die Regime-Abhängigkeit von Multiplikatoren kontrolliert. Es zeigt sich, dass ausgabeseitige Multiplikatoren im Abschwung um 0,6 bis 0,8 Punkte höher liegen. Darüber hinaus übersteigen ausgabeseitige Maßnahmen in ihrer Multiplikatorwirkung signifikant jene von Steueränderungen um etwa 0,3 während konjunktureller Normalphasen - und noch deutlicher im Abschwung. Auf einer breiten Basis empirischer Evidenz schlussfolgern wir, dass zur Begrenzung der negativen Folgen auf die Konjunktur Konsolidierungsmaßnahmen besser im Aufschwung und verstärkt über die Einnahmeseite erfolgen sollten.

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Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 139-2014.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:139-2014
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