The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model
This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on private GDP, inflation and the long-term interest rate in Italy using a structural vector autoregression model. To this end, a database of quarterly cash data for selected fiscal variables for the period 1982:1-2004:4 is constructed, largely relying on the information contained in the Italian Treasury Quarterly Reports. The main results of the study can be summarized as follows. A shock to government purchases of goods and services has a sizeable and robust effect on economic activity: an exogenous one per cent (in terms of private GDP) shock increases private real GDP by 0.6 per cent after 3 quarters. The response goes to zero after two years, reflecting with a lag the low persistence of the shock. The effects on employment, private consumption and investment are also positive. The response of inflation is positive but small and short-lived. In contrast, public wages, which in many studies are lumped together with purchases, have no significant effect on output, while the effects on employment turn negative after two quarters. Shocks to net revenue have negligible effects on all the variables.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wolff, Guntram B. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H., 2006.
"The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff & Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
- Selma Mahfouz & Richard Hemming & Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 02/208, International Monetary Fund.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- jerome henry & sandro momigliano & pablo hernandez de cos, 2005.
"The short-term impact of government budgets on prices Evidence from macroeconometric models,"
- Jerome Henry & Pablo Hernandez de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices; evidence from macroeconometric models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 523, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Jérôme Henry & Pablo Hernández de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconometrics models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0418, Banco de Espa�a.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994.
"Error Bands for Impulse Responses,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2002.
"Public Employment and Labor Market Performances,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2002. "Public Employment and Labor Market Performances," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8846, Sciences Po.
- Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2002. "Public employment and labor market performances," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00256207, HAL.
- de Castro Fernández, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2006.
"The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach,"
Working Paper Series
0647, European Central Bank.
- Francisco de Castro & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0604, Banco de Espa�a.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009.
"What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
- Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Mountford and Uhlig JAE 2009 sign-constrained VAR," Statistical Software Components RTZ00121, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1998.
"Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases,"
Working Paper Series
WP-98-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," NBER Working Papers 6737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2001.
"Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 8.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2000. "Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,83, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998.
"Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
- Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Has the Stability and Growth Pact Impeded Political Budget Cycles in the European Union?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1532, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:23:y:2007:i:3:p:707-733. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.