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The effects of fiscal shocks with debt-stabilizing budgetary policies in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Caprioli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Sandro Momigliano

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We study the effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic developments in Italy over the period 1982-2010 with a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. We include public debt and impose the government budget constraint in the estimation. In contrast with previous research we also include foreign demand, significantly improving estimation accuracy. We find that movements in debt induce stabilizing reactions in fiscal policy. In this context, expenditure and revenue shocks have significant effects on economic activity; these are stronger, as well as more precisely estimated and robust, for expenditure. Expenditure multipliers are higher when we exclude from our sample the initial years and, in particular, when we focus on the post-Maastricht period.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Caprioli & Sandro Momigliano, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks with debt-stabilizing budgetary policies in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 839, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_839_11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Jacopo Cimadomo & Antonello D'Agostino, 2016. "Combining Time Variation and Mixed Frequencies: an Analysis of Government Spending Multipliers in Italy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1276-1290, November.
    6. Oscar Parkyn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(290), pages 345-364, September.
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    8. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Giovanni Luca & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers and unreported production: evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 877-896, November.
    9. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2019. "The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy and Government Spending Shocks on Unemployment in the Peripheral Euro Area Countries," Department of Economics 0143, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Kindy R. Sjahrir, 2018. "Fiscal Constraints in the Financial System Stability Framework for Indonesian Data," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201803, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2018.
    11. Tang, Hsiao Chink & Liu, Philip & Cheung, Eddie C., 2013. "Changing impact of fiscal policy on selected ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 103-116.
    12. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2015. "Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0057, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    13. Bernardi, L., 2012. "Heterogeneity of taxation in EA Member countries and some implications for EA fiscal governance," MPRA Paper 40050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    15. Pablo Anaya & Alex Pienkowski, 2015. "What Really Drives Public Debt: A Holistic Approach," IMF Working Papers 2015/137, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; public debt; foreign demand; fiscal multipliers; VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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