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Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected ASEAN Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Tang, Hsiao Chink

    () (Asian Development Bank)

  • Liu, Philip

    () (Western Hemisphere Department)

  • Cheung, Eddie C.

    () (School of Arts and Social Sciences)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Through a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model, government spending is found to have weak and largely insignificant impact on output, while taxes are found to have outcomes contrary to conventional theory. Extensions using a time-varying VAR model reveal the impact of taxes on output mainly reflect heightened concerns over public finances amid the Asian financial crisis and the recent global financial crisis. On the other hand, for Singapore and Thailand, there is evidence that government spending can at times be useful as a tool for countercyclical policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Hsiao Chink & Liu, Philip & Cheung, Eddie C., 2010. "Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected ASEAN Countries," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 70, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0070
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    2. Oscar Parkyn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(290), pages 345-364, September.
    3. Yingxin Shi & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2015. "Long-Run Fiscal Multipliers for Autonomous Prefectures in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 687-695, December.
    4. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2017. "How large are fiscal multipliers in Turkey?," EconStor Preprints 162763, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    5. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2015. "Growth enhancing effect of discretionary fiscal policy shocks: Keynesian, Weak Keynesian or Non-Keynesian?," MPRA Paper 65976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2015.
    6. Riki Amir Kusnadi & Romora Edward Sitorus, 2014. "The dynamics of regional economic integration in ASEAN + 3 countries," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(9), pages 439-454, September.
    7. Pongsudhirak, Thitinan, 2013. "Between Economic and Political Crises:Thailand’s Contested Free Trade Agreements," Working Papers 63, JICA Research Institute.
    8. Sudip Basu & Clovis Freire & Pisit Puapan & Vatcharin Sirimaneetham & Yusuke Tateno, 2013. "Euro zone debt crisis: scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-25.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN; fiscal policy; structural VAR; time-varying VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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