Euro zone debt crisis: Scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific
The ongoing euro zone debt crisis creates an undesirable scenario for the global economy as well as for the Asia-Pacific region given that the region has close economic linkages. The paper aims to provide quantitative estimates of the potential impact of the euro zone debt crisis on merchandise exports as well as on economic growth and poverty reduction efforts in the region. The results indicate that a one-percentage-point fall of output growth of the euro zone would result in a total export loss of $166 billion. In addition, the protectionist threats could further increase the loss in exports by $27 billion. On social development, the disorderly euro zone debt crisis scenario would prevent 8.19 million people to get out of poverty and another 1.15 million would be pushed back into poverty as per the $1.25-a-day poverty line. The paper illustrates that macroeconomic policy space appears adequate in most economies that tend to be more heavily affected by the euro zone debt crisis. But strong inflationary pressures and less favourable public debt conditions could prevent some economies from implementing swift and forceful macroeconomic policy responses.
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- Geoffrey M. Ducanes & Marie Anne Cagas & Duo Qin & Pilipinas Quising & M. A. Razzaque & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, "undated".
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- Sudip Ranjan Basu & Fabien Dumesnil, 2012. "Evolution Of Non-Tariff Measures: Emerging Cases From Selected Developing Countries," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 52, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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- Bilge Erten, 2012. "Macroeconomic Transmission of Eurozone Shocks to Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 131, pages 43-70.
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