How Effective Is Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence
This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in developing countries. We summarize the arguments for expecting the bank lending channel to be the dominant means of monetary transmission in such countries, and present a simple model that suggests why this channel may be both weak and unreliable under the conditions that usually characterize those economies. Next, we review the empirical methodologies that have been employed in the recent literature to assess monetary policy effectiveness, both in developing countries as well as in industrial and emerging economies, essentially based on vector autoregressions (VARs). It is very hard to come away from this review of the evidence with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in developing countries. We distinguish between the 'facts on the ground' and 'methodological deficiencies' interpretations of the absence of evidence for strong monetary transmission. We suspect, however, that 'facts on the ground' are indeed an important part of the story. The fact that a wide range of empirical approaches have failed to yield evidence of effective monetary transmission in developing countries, and that the strongest evidence for effective monetary transmission has arisen for relatively prosperous and more institutionally-developed countries such as some central and Eastern European transition economies (at least in the later stages of their transition) and Tunisia, makes us doubt whether methodological shortcomings are the whole story. If this conjecture is correct, the stabilization challenge in developing countries is acute indeed, and identifying the means of enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy in such countries is an important challenge
|Date of creation:||Sep 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
- International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Transmission Mechanism in Armenia; New Evidence from a Regime Switching VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 10/270, International Monetary Fund.
- Simon Neaime, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Targeting Mechanisms in the MENA Region," Working Papers 395, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2008.
- Adam Elbourne & Jakob de Haan, 2009.
"Modeling Monetary Policy Transmission in Acceding Countries: Vector Autoregression Versus Structural Vector Autoregression,"
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(2), pages 4-20, March.
- Adam Elbourne & Jakob de Haan, 2009. "Modeling Monetary Policy Transmission in Acceding Countries: Vector Autoregression Versus Structural Vector Autoregression," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 4-20, March.
- Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2008.
"Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Surveying the Surveyable,"
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
654, OECD Publishing.
- Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, 04.
- David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1993.
"The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
93-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-1247, December.
- David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 92-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995.
"Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Rania A. Al-Mashat & Andreas Billmeier, 2007.
"The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt,"
IMF Working Papers
07/285, International Monetary Fund.
- Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Is there a Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in Latvia? Evidence from Bank Level Data," Working Papers 2008/01, Latvijas Banka.
- Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
- Ewa Wrobel & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Poland: a Study of the Importance of Interest Rate and Credit Channels," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/1 edited by Morten Balling, 00.
- Ramlogan, Carlyn., 2007. "Anism of monetary policy in small developing countries: an application to Trinidad and Tobago," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 79-91, September.
- Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2011.
"Dynamic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks In Malawi,"
South African Journal of Economics,
Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 224-250, 09.
- Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2011. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Malawi," Working Papers 217, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2011. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Malawi," Working Papers 201112, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Claudia Kwapil & Johann Scharler, 2006. "Limited Pass-Through from Policy to Retail Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 26-36.
- Matousek, Roman & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2009. "The bank lending channel and monetary transmission in Central and Eastern European countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 321-334, June.
- Giorgi Bakradze & Andreas Billmeier, 2007. "Inflation Targeting in Georgia; Are We There Yet?," IMF Working Papers 07/193, International Monetary Fund.
- Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi, 2009. "Assess The Long Run Effects Of Monetary Policy On Bank lending,Foreign Asset and Liability In MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 14331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- repec:eme:jespps:v:31:y:2004:i:5:p:435-447 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.