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Limited Pass-Through from Policy to Retail Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

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Abstract

In this paper we survey empirical evidence on the limited pass-through from policy to retail interest rates and summarize some recent research on potential implications for monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations. Empirical evidence suggests that while the pass-through is incomplete in the euro area as well as in the U.S.A., it appears to be higher in the U.S.A. This is especially true for the long-run pass-through. Research in this field suggests that a limited pass-through alters the Taylor Principle. In the case of a perfect pass-through, the Taylor Principle requires that policy rates increase by more than one-to-one with an increase in (expected) inflation. If the pass-through is incomplete, policy rates have to respond by even more to compensate for the smoothing of retail rates. However, the monetary policies currently implemented in the euro area and the U.S.A. seem to satisfy the conditions for a unique and stable equilibrium and thus avoid sunspot shocks. Furthermore, findings in the literature also show that a limited passthrough has implications for the stabilizing role of monetary policy and therefore, fluctuations arising from fundamental shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Kwapil & Johann Scharler, 2006. "Limited Pass-Through from Policy to Retail Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 26-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2006:i:4:b:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel C. Hickman & William W. Olney, 2011. "Globalization and Investment in Human Capital," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 64(4), pages 654-672, July.
    2. Bernhofer, Dominik & van Treeck, Till, 2013. "New evidence of heterogeneous bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 418-429.
    3. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    4. Peter J Montiel & Antonio Spilimbergo & Prachi Mishra, 2010. "Monetary Transmission in Low Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/223, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Machava, Agostinho, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of the Pass-Through from the Market Interest Rate to the Bank Lending Rate in Mozambique," Umeå Economic Studies 954, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    6. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2011. "How Effective Is Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 8577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Aristei, David & Gallo, Manuela, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 273-295.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate pass-through; Financial systems; Stability;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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