IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis

  • Petrevski, Goran
  • Bogoev, Jane

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the interest rate channel in three small open economies with rigid exchange rate regimes in South East Europe – Bulgaria, Croatia and Macedonia – during the period 2000–2010. Specifically, we examine the size and speed of adjustment of bank lending rates to the changes in money market rates by employing various cointegration methods. In addition, we assess the stability of interest rate passthrough during the transition period, including the recent economic crisis. The results reveal the existence of a cointegrating relationship among some of the interest rates. We find that the long-run pass-through is far from complete with the exception of Macedonia. The shortrun adjustment of lending rates is also low and sluggish, implying that the domestic monetary policy may have a limited impact on the interest rate channel. Finally, the econometric investigation provides mixed evidence on the stability of the interest rate pass-through. Therefore, the overall findings of the paper support the view that in small open economies with rigid exchange rates the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy through the interest rate channel is quite limited.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362512000519
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 571-593

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:571-593
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.03.001
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Landshuter Str. 4, 93047 Regensburg

Phone: +49-(0)941-943 54 10
Fax: +49-(0)941-943 54 27
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/621171
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alexandru MINEA & Christophe RAULT, 2011. "External Monetary Shocks and Monetary Integration: Evidence from the Bulgarian Currency Board," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 616, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Stanislawska & Ewa Wrbel, 2011. "Monetary Policy Transmission Disturbances During the Financial Crisis," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 49(5), pages 75-96, September.
  4. F. De Graeve & O. De Jonghe & R. Vander Vennet, 2004. "Competition, transmission and bank pricing policies: Evidence from Belgian loan and deposit markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/261, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. " Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-87, September.
  6. Ho, Thomas S. Y. & Saunders, Anthony, 1981. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Margins: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 581-600, November.
  7. Heinemann, Friedrich & Schüler, Martin, 2002. "Integration benefits on EU retail credit markets: evidence from interest rate pass-through," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-26, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  8. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, 04.
  9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  10. Anca Maria Pruteanu-Podpiera, 2007. "The role of banks in the Czech monetary policy transmission mechanism," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 15(2), pages 393-428, 04.
  11. Roman Horvath & Anca Maria Podpiera, 2009. "Heterogeneity in Bank Pricing Policies: The Czech Evidence," Working Papers 2009/8, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  12. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in the major European economies - the role of expectations," Discussion Papers 10-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  13. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2006. "Expected versus unexpected monetary policy impulses and interest rate pass-through in euro-zone retail banking markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1839-1870, July.
  14. Sander Harald & Kleimeier Stefanie, 2003. "Convergence in Eurozone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Research Memorandum 051, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  15. Paul Klemperer, 1987. "Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(2), pages 375-394.
  16. Michiel Van Leuvensteijn & Christoffer Kok Sorensen & Jacob A. Bikker & Adrian A.R.J.M. Van Rixtel, 2011. "Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area," Post-Print hal-00763955, HAL.
  17. Csilla Horváth & Judit Krekó & Anna Naszódi, 2004. "Interest rate pass-through in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2004/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  18. Mojon, Benoît, 2000. "Financial structure and the interest rate channel of ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0040, European Central Bank.
  19. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
  20. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  21. Angeliki Kourelis & Carlo Cottarelli, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 94/39, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  23. Carlo Cottarelli & Angeliki Kourelis, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 587-623, December.
  24. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Thomas Reininger, 2006. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Central and Eastern Europe: Reborn from Ashes Merely to Pass Away?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 88-111.
  25. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  26. Reimo Juks, 2004. "The importance of the bank-lending channel in Estonia: evidence from micro-economic data," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-6, Bank of Estonia, revised 11 Nov 2004.
  27. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
  28. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
  29. Fried, Joel & Howitt, Peter, 1980. "Credit Rationing and Implicit Contract Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 471-87, August.
  30. Philip Lowe & Thomas Rohling, 1992. "Loan Rate Stickiness: Theory and Evidence," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9206, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  31. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Is there a Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in Latvia? Evidence from Bank Level Data," Working Papers 2008/01, Latvijas Banka.
  32. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  33. Ewa Wrobel & Malgorzata Pawlowska, 2002. "Monetary transmission in Poland: some evidence on interest rate and credit channels," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 24, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  34. Milan Aleksic & Ljiljana Djurdjevic & Mirjana Palic & Nikola Tasic, 2008. "Interest Rate Transmission in a Dollarized Economy: the Case of Serbia," Working papers 15, National Bank of Serbia.
  35. Wojciech S. Maliszewski, 2000. "Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 749-789, November.
  36. Linda A. Toolsema & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2001. "Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU New Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 465, CESifo Group Munich.
  37. repec:crs:wpaper:9645 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Demsetz, Harold, 1973. "Industry Structure, Market Rivalry, and Public Policy," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, April.
  39. Chmielewski, Tomasz, 2003. "Interest rate pass-through in the Polish banking sector and bank-specific financial disturbances," MPRA Paper 5133, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Jan 2004.
  40. Klemperer, Paul D, 1987. "Entry Deterrence in Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 99-117, Supplemen.
  41. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  42. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  43. Kraft, Evan & Jankov, Ljubinko, 2005. "Does speed kill? Lending booms and their consequences in Croatia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 105-121, January.
  44. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2006. "Convergence of interest rate pass-through in a wider euro zone?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 405-423, December.
  45. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  46. Csilla Horváth & Judit Krekó & Anna Naszódi, 2006. "Is there a bank lending channel in Hungary? Evidence from bank panel data," MNB Working Papers 2006/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  47. Stelios Karagiannis & Yannis Panagopoulos & Prodromos Vlamis, 2011. "Symmetric or Asymmetric Interest Rate Adjustments? Evidence from Southeastern Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 370-385, 05.
  48. Emil Stavrev & Thomas Harjes & Martin Cihak, 2009. "Euro Area Monetary Policy in Uncharted Waters," IMF Working Papers 09/185, International Monetary Fund.
  49. Weth, Mark A., 2002. "The pass-through from market interest rates to bank lending rates in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  50. de Bondt, Gabe & Mojon, Benoît & Valla, Natacha, 2005. "Term structure and the sluggishness of retail bank interest rates in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0518, European Central Bank.
  51. Alexander F. Tieman, 2004. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Romania and Other Central European Economies," IMF Working Papers 04/211, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Gabe J. de Bondt, 2005. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Empirical Results for the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 37-78, 02.
  53. Köhler, Matthias & Hommel, Judith & Grote, Matthias, 2006. "The Role of Banks in the Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Baltics," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-05, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:571-593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.