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The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies

Author

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  • Goran Petrevski

    ()

  • Jane Bogoev

    ()

  • Dragan Tevdovski

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates the transmission of foreign shocks to economic activity and macroeconomic policies in three South Eastern European (SEE) economies: Croatia, Macedonia and Bulgaria. Specifically, we provide empirical evidence on the influence of several policy and non-policy shocks (euro-zone output gap, money market rate and inflation) on economic activity as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the three countries. The main motivation behind our empirical investigation is the fact that all of these economies are small open economies with rigid exchange rate regimes and different degree of integration within the European Union (EU). As for the methodological issues, we employ recursive vector autoregressions to identify the exogenous shocks in the euro-area. Generally, the estimated results imply that euro-zone economic activity has significant and relatively strong influence on these economies where foreign output shocks are transmitted relatively quickly. The results also suggest that the effects of foreign shocks are of larger magnitude in the countries that are more integrated with the EU. An additional finding is that positive foreign interest rate shocks trigger a contractionary response of domestic monetary policy notwithstanding the fact that domestic money market rates are not linked with euro-zone interest rates. Finally, euro-zone inflation is instantly transmitted to domestic inflation. We can explain these effects by several factors, such as: the fixed exchange rates, the relatively high trade integration of SEE economies within the euro-zone as well as the dependence of SEE banks on foreign financing. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 747-767, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:42:y:2015:i:4:p:747-767
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-014-9275-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Berisha Edmond, 2017. "ECB Monetary Policy Actions and the Economic Conditions of a Non-Euro Member: The Case of Croatia," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, June.
    2. Rafael Ravnik & Nikola Bokan, 2018. "Quarterly Projection Model for Croatia," Surveys 34, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Vector autoregression; Exogenous shocks; C3; E52; E58; E61;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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