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How much of the macroeconomic variation in Eastern Europe is attributable to external shocks

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  • Maćkowiak, Bartosz

Abstract

We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea interest rate shocks can account for a significant fraction of the external spillover effects. We conclude that theoretical models of advanced transition economies and policy rules for these economies should feature a prominent role for external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2005. "How much of the macroeconomic variation in Eastern Europe is attributable to external shocks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-061, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2005-061
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    Cited by:

    1. Barišić, Patrik & Kovač, Tibor & Arčabić, Vladimir, 2023. "More than just supply and demand: Macroeconomic shock decomposition in Croatia during and after the transition period," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 420-438.
    2. István Ábel & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Macroeconomic Risks and Monetary Policy in Central European Countries: Parallels in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-26, November.
    3. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    4. Katarzyna Kubiszewska, 2013. "Economic Crisis In Croatia," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 57-72, June.
    5. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2015. "The Cost of Euro Adoption in Poland," Working Paper 5779, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    6. Josef C. Brada & Jan KubÃ­Ä ek & Ali M. Kutan & Vladimír Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    7. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    8. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    9. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2020. "Propagation of economic shocks from Russia and Western European countries to CEE-Baltic countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 489-512, September.
    10. Deskar-Škrbić, Milan & Kotarac, Karlo & Kunovac, Davor, 2020. "The third round of euro area enlargement: Are the candidates ready?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    11. Aleksandra Halka & Grzegorz Szafranski, 2018. "What Common Factors are Driving Inflation in CEE Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 131-148.
    12. Slavov, Slavi T., 2008. "Measuring and modeling the effects of G-3 exchange rate fluctuations on small open economies: A natural experiment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 253-273, September.

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