IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries

  • Golinelli, Roberto
  • Rovelli, Riccardo

In 1991, the rate of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was between 35% and 70%. At the end of 2001, it is below 8%. We setup a small structural macro model of these economies to explain the process of disinflation. Contrary to a widespread skepticism, which permeated a large part of previous research on these issues, we show that a simple open macroeconomic model, along the lines of Svensson (2000, Journal of International Economics), with forward-looking inflation and exchange rate expectations, can adequately characterize the relationship between the output gap, inflation, the real interest rate and the exchange rate during the course of transition. We use the estimated models to interpret the main features of monetary policy in each country and identify the channels of policy transmission. We characterize the policy rules and assess the relative importance of the interest rate channel (on aggregate demand) and the exchange rate channel (which affects both aggregate demand and supply) in determining the path of (dis)inflation. In the same context, we also tentatively analyze the consequences of attempting a faster path of disinflation. Finally, we evaluate the appropriateness of the inflation targeting framework which has been adopted recently in all three countries, and discuss to what extent it represents a discontinuity with the past.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-4D4D42J-2/2/cb7117c12c8ea8eb77c95bd34071bffe
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 183-201

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:29:y:2005:i:1:p:183-201
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
  2. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Eduard Hochreiter & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "The generation and distribution of central bank seigniorage in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(223), pages 391-415.
  4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  6. Peter Christoffersen & Torsten Sløk & Robert Wescott, 2001. "Is inflation targeting feasible in Poland?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, March.
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  8. Amato, Jeffery D. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Inflation targeting in emerging market and transition economies: Lessons after a decade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 781-790, May.
  9. Marvin Goodfriend, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Working Paper 87-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  10. Bohdan Klos & Ewa Wrobel, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism and the structural modelling of inflation at the National Bank of Poland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 232-251 Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan, 1999. "The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 230, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
  13. Tomasz Lyziak, 2002. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Poland.The strenght and delays," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 26, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  14. Lavan Mahadeva & Katerina Smidkova, 2004. "Modelling transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Czech Republic," Macroeconomics 0402032, EconWPA.
  15. Cukierman, A. & Miller, G.P. & Neyapti, B., 2000. "Central Bank Reform, Liberalization and Inflation in Transition Economies : An International Perspective," Discussion Paper 2000-106, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
  17. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Ali M. Kutan & Josef C. Brada, 2000. "The evolution of monetary policy in transition economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 31-40.
  19. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2000. "Monetary policy and exchange rate targeting in open economies," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 14, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  20. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
  21. Siklos, Pierre L. & Abel, Istvan, 2002. "Is Hungary ready for inflation targeting?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 309-333, December.
  22. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December.
  23. Buiter, Willem H, 1980. "The Macroeconomics of Dr. Pangloss: A Critical Survey of the New Classical Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 34-50, March.
  24. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September.
  25. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 0002, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:29:y:2005:i:1:p:183-201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.