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Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies

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  • Mehrotra, Aaron
  • Sánchez-Fung, José R.

Abstract

The paper estimates McCallum and Taylor monetary policy reaction functions, and hybrids mixing instruments and targets from the two frameworks, for 20 emerging market economies. McCallum-Taylor specifications with an interest rate instrument and a nominal income gap target perform better than benchmark Taylor rules in describing monetary policy in inflation targeting economies. Estimating reaction functions for economies operating monetary and exchange rate targeting regimes produces mixed results, often revealing a lean with the wind behaviour. Instrument smoothing is a feature in the monetary base and in the interest rate reaction functions, but the exchange rate is not consistently significant. The results from the econometric analysis are robust to using alternative estimators. JEL classification: E52, E58, F41 Keywords: McCallum and Taylor rules, nominal feedback rule, monetary policy, inflation targeting, emerging markets

Suggested Citation

  • Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2009_023
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2015. "Contemporary monetary policy in China: A move towards price-based policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. repec:eee:rujoec:v:3:y:2017:i:4:p:366-378 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bleich, Dirk & Fendel, Ralf & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Inflation targeting makes the difference: Novel evidence on inflation stabilization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1092-1105.
    4. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1265-y is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Iikka Korhonen & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2016. "A monetary policy rule for Russia, or is it rules?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 28-45.
    6. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner & Leonardo Villar & Cesar Pabon, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-473, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 755-806, October.
    8. repec:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:1-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503181119 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. William Miles & Sam Schreyer, 2012. "Is monetary policy non-linear in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand? A quantile regression analysis," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 155-166, November.
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    12. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    13. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.
    14. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2012. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India," IMF Working Papers 12/118, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    16. Amos C. Peters, 2016. "Monetary policy, exchange rate targeting and fear of floating in emerging market economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 255-281, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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