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Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland

Abstract

The paper presents the procedure and two structural macroeconometric models used at the National Bank of Poland for producing regular quarterly inflation projections. One of the models is a small macroeconomic model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve and the exchange rate equation based on uncovered interest parity with risk factors. The other, more disaggregated model, explicitly focuses on the supply side and separates the steady state from short-term adjustments.

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File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/31_en.pdf
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Paper provided by Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department in its series NBP Working Papers with number 31.

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Length: 48
Date of creation: 2005
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:31
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Web page: http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=/en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/informacja_en.html

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Keywords: macroeconomic models; inflation forecasting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
  • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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Cited by:

  1. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
  2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  3. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurnik, 2006. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: "Saints" and "Sinners"," Working Papers 2006/8, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Tomasz Łyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wróbel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission Poland: A study of the importance of interest rate and credit channels," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  5. Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2008. "Small Inflation Model of Mongolia (SIMOM)," MPRA Paper 72139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2008.
  6. Przystupa, Jan & Wróbel, Ewa, 2009. "Asymmetry of the exchange rate pass-through: An exercise on the Polish data," MPRA Paper 17660, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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