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The Spanish block of the ESCB-Multi-Country model

Author

Listed:
  • Alpo Willman

    () (European Central Bank)

  • Ángel Estrada

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper presents the Spanish country block (ES-MCM) of the ESCB Multi-Country Model for the euro area, which has been built in a close co-operation with the ECB and the Banco de España. The theoretical structure of the ES-MCM block is in line with most current mainstream macro models, i.e. the supply factors determine the long-run equilibrium, while in the short run output is demanddetermined, resulting from a sluggish adjustment of prices and quantities. The paper is structured as follows. First, a simplified theoretical counterpart of the ES-MCM block is presented and its steadystate comparative statistics and stock-flow equilibrium properties are studied. The theoretical analysis is followed by the review of the estimated equations of the ES-MCM block. Finally the simulation properties of the ES-MCM block are presented in the light of five alternative shock simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Alpo Willman & Ángel Estrada, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-Multi-Country model," Working Papers 0212, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0212
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/02/Fic/dt0212e.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willman, Alpo & Kortelainen, Mika & Mannisto, Hanna-Leena & Tujula, Mika, 2000. "The BOF5 macroeconomic model of Finland, structure and dynamic microfoundations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 275-303, April.
    2. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    3. Jeanfils, P., 2000. "A Model with Explicit Expectations for Belgium," Papers 4, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    4. Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0009, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
    6. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    8. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
    2. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
    3. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1050, European Central Bank.
    4. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    5. Ryan, Mary, 2003. "Patterns and Determinants of Irish Consumption," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 67-89, August.
    6. Markus Leibrecht & Martin Schneider, 2006. "AQM-06: The Macro economic Model of the OeNB," Working Papers 132, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    8. Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener unter Mitarb. von Cansel Kiziltepe & Christian Proano-Acosta, 2005. "Auswirkungen von länderspezifischen Differenzen in der Lohn-, Preisniveau- und Produktivitätsentwicklung auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung in den Ländern des Euroraums: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im ," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 8, number pbk8.
    9. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Ursachen der Wachstumsschwäche in Deutschland 1995-2005," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Warmedinger, Thomas & Vetlov, Igor, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 654, European Central Bank.
    11. Angelini, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 646, European Central Bank.
    12. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    13. Angelini, Elena & McAdam, Peter & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2006. "The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 660, European Central Bank.
    14. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2006. "Macroeconomic aspects of structural labor market reforms in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1295, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    15. Vetlov, Igor, 2004. "The lithuanian block of the ECSB multi-country model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Francisco de Castro, 2003. "Non-Keynesian effects of public expenditure in Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 651-655.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macro model; stock-flow equilibrium; Spain;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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