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The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model

Author

Listed:
  • Angelini, Elena
  • McAdam, Peter
  • D'Agostino, Antonello

Abstract

This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB-multi-country model (MCM). The model is used regularly as an input into Eurosystem projection exercises and, to a lesser extent, in simulation analysis. The specification of the Italian model follows closely that of the Area-Wide Model (AWM) and indeed the other MCM country blocks (in terms of specification and accounting framework). The MCM is a quarterly estimated structural macroeconomic model that treats the economy in a relatively closed manner. It has a long-run classical equilibrium with a vertical Phillips curve but with some short-run frictions in price/wage setting and factor demands. Consequently, activity is demand-determined in the short-run but supply-determined in the longer run with employment having converged to a level consistent with an exogenously given level of equilibrium unemployment. The precise properties of the model are illustrated using a number of standard variant simulations. JEL Classification: C3, C5, E1, E2

Suggested Citation

  • Angelini, Elena & McAdam, Peter & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2006. "The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 660, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006660
    Note: 338657
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp660.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    2. Tohmas Karlsson & Peter McAdam, 2005. "The Eurosystem's multi-country model and the link block," Chapters, in: Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Estrada, Ángel & Willman, Alpo, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model," Working Paper Series 149, European Central Bank.
    4. Angelini, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 646, European Central Bank.
    5. Villetelle, Jean-Pierre & Boissay, Frédéric, 2005. "The French block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 456, European Central Bank.
    6. Klump, Rainer & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2004. "Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US: a normalized supply-side system approach," Working Paper Series 367, European Central Bank.
    7. Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), 2005. "Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3918.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    2. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    3. Warmedinger, Thomas & Vetlov, Igor, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 654, European Central Bank.
    4. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    5. Andres Frick & Michael Graff & Jochen Kurt Hartwig & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy," KOF Working papers 10-253, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Analyzing MeMo-It supply side properties," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 57-64.
    7. Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_958, Levy Economics Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italy; Macro-econometric Modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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