IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Aggregation bias in macro models: does it matter foir the euro area?

  • Libero Monteforte

    ()

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

The euro area represents a case-study of great institutional relevance for the econometric problem of aggregation bias. The available data can be used to analyze the area either with aggregate or with country-specific models. The choice should be the result of a statistical comparison between the two options, with respect to the specific model. In this paper we suggest a representation of the aggregation error based on unobservable components and explicitly conceived for aggregations over a small number of economies. In the empirical application two alternative models are estimated: the first specifies the main euro countries while the other refers to the whole area. We then evaluate the aggregation error either from the viewpoint of a comparison of the two models with standard methods, or looking at the components of the representation suggested here. Both categories of results indicate non-negligible aggregation errors for the euro area.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2004/2004-0534/tema_534.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 534.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_534_04
Contact details of provider: Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
  2. Adalid, Ramon & Coenen, Gunter & McAdam, Peter & Siviero, Stefano, 2005. "The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  4. Ehrmann, Michael & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Martinéz Pagés, Jorge & Sevestre, Patrick & Worms, Andreas, 2001. "Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0105, European Central Bank.
  5. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
  7. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 0004, European Central Bank.
  8. Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  10. Pesaran, M. H. & Pierse, R. G., 1989. "A proof of the asymptotic validity of a test for perfect aggregation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 41-47.
  11. Werner R�ger & Jan in 't Veld, 2002. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European Commission's QUEST model," European Economy - Economic Papers 178, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  12. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 0195, European Central Bank.
  13. Luigi Guiso & Anil K. Kashyap & Fabio Panetta & Daniele Terlizzese, 2000. "Will a Common European Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 384, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  14. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 2002. "Does One Size Fit All? A currency union with asymmetric transmissions and a stability pact," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 71-96.
  15. C. Doz & F. Lenglart, 1998. "Analyse factorielle dynamique : Test du nombre de facteurs, estimation, et application à l'enquête de conjoncture dans l'industrie," THEMA Working Papers 98-31, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  16. Douglas Laxton & Ben Hunt, 2003. "Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod," IMF Working Papers 03/31, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Clausen, Volker & Hayo, Bernd, 2002. "Asymmetric monetary policy effects in EMU," ZEI Working Papers B 04-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  18. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  19. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Lee, Kevin C, 1994. "Choice between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variables Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 11-21, January.
  20. Barrell, Ray & Becker, Bettina & Byrne, Joseph & Gottschalk, Sylvia & Hurst, Ian & van Welsum, Desiree, 2004. "Macroeconomic policy in Europe: experiments with monetary responses and fiscal impulses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 877-931, September.
  21. Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
  22. J. B. Chatelain & Andrea Generale & I. Hernando & U. von Kalckreuth & P. Vermeulen, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 431, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  23. De Bandt, Olivier & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2000. "Convergence of fiscal policies in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0020, European Central Bank.
  24. Danny Quah & Thomas J. Sargent, 1993. "A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 285-310 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Andreas Beyer & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Reconstructing Aggregate Euro-zone Data," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 613-624, November.
  26. Mayes, David G & Virén, Matti, 2000. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Research Discussion Papers 11/2000, Bank of Finland.
  27. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: what do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 433, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  29. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: What Role for National Information?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 457, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  30. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October.
  31. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  32. Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788885.
  33. Jeanfils, P., 2000. "A Model with Explicit Expectations for Belgium," Papers 4, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
  34. Willman, Alpo & Estrada, Ángel, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model," Working Paper Series 0149, European Central Bank.
  35. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
  36. Philip R. Lane, & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp05, IIIS.
  37. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
  38. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Giorgio Gobbi & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2004. "The interaction between face-to-face and electronic delivery: the case of the Italian banking industry," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 508, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  39. Rudiger Dornbusch & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 6369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008.
  41. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union; What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
  42. Dedola, L. & Lippi, F., 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Industries of Five OECD Countries," Papers 389, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  43. Giacomo Sbrana, 2008. "On the use of area-wide models in the Euro-zone," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 499-518, October.
  44. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  45. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  46. Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2000. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers 12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  47. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  48. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  50. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is It Changing Over Time?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0115, Banco de Espa�a.
  51. Benedict J. Clements & Zenon Kontolemis G. & Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under EMU Differences in the Transition Mechanism?," IMF Working Papers 01/102, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Aigner, Dennis J & Goldfeld, Stephen M, 1974. "Estimation and Prediction from Aggregate Data when Aggregates are Measured More Accurately than Their Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 113-34, January.
  53. Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February.
  54. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, 04.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_534_04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.