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Choice Between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variable Methods

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  • Pesaran, M.
  • Pierse, R.G.
  • Lee, K.C.

Abstract

A choice criterion is proposed for discriminating between disaggregate and aggregate models estimated by the instrumental variables method. The criterion, based on prediction errors, represents a generalization of criteria developed in the context of classical regressions models. The paper also derives general tests for aggregation bias in the instrumental variables context. The criterion and tests are applied in an analysis of U.K. employment demand. It is shown that a model disaggregated by forty industries predicts aggregate employment better than an aggregate model, and that significant biases exist in estimates of the long-run wage and output elasticities obtained from the aggregate model.
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Suggested Citation

  • Pesaran, M. & Pierse, R.G. & Lee, K.C., 1992. "Choice Between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variable Methods," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9219, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9219
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    Cited by:

    1. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
    2. Seo, Seong-Cheon & Capps, Oral, Jr., 1997. "Testing For Store-Level Differences In Factors Affecting Item Movement Of Prego And Ragu Spaghetti Sauces Using Point-Of-Sale Data," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 28(3), pages 1-12, October.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Chudik, Alexander, 2014. "Aggregation in large dynamic panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 273-285.
    4. Jean Imbs & Eric Jondeau & Florian Pelgrin, 2006. "Aggregating Phillips curves," 2006 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. van Garderen, Kees Jan & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2000. "Cross-sectional aggregation of non-linear models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 285-331, April.
    6. J¨¹rgen Roth & Simon G. Fauser, 2011. "Reaction Patterns of German Regional Labour Markets to Macroeconomic and Policy-induced Shocks¡ª A Comparative Analysis," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 87-103, February.
    7. Dieppe, Alistair & Warmedinger, Thomas, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 760, European Central Bank.
    8. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2013. "Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis Using Model Averaging Methods," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 28-53, October.
    9. Juan de Dios Tena, 2006. "The Impact of Non-financial Factors on Heterogeneous Sectoral Price and Output," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 52(3), pages 19-29.
    10. Simon Fauser, 2011. "Modeling regional labor markets in Germany: insights not only for German policy makers," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 169-201, May.

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    Keywords

    economic models ; econometrics;

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