Cross-sectional Aggregation of Non-linear Models
This paper considers the problem of cross-sectional aggregation when the underlying micro behavioural relations are characterised by general non-linear specifications. It focuses on forecasting the aggregates, and shows how an optimal aggregate model can be derived by minimising the mean squared prediction errors conditional on the aggregate information. It also derives model selection criteria for distinguishing between aggregate and disaggregate models when the primary object of the analysis is forecasting the aggregates, and establishes the consistency of the model selection criteria in large samples. In the case of standard non-linear micro relations with additive specifications, boot-strap techniques are considered to correct for small sample bias of the proposed model selection criteria. The paper also contains an empirical application where log-linear production functions are estimated for the UK economy disaggregated by eight industrial sectors and at the aggregate level for 1954-1995.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro, 1995.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992.
"Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Stoker, Thomas M, 1984. "Completeness, Distribution Restrictions, and the Form of Aggregate Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 887-907, July.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1989. "Exact Aggregation and a Representative Consumer," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 621-33, August.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 208-222, April.
- Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "A Decision_Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9618, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1992. "Aggregation with Log-Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 635-42, July.
- Brown, Bryan W. & Mariano, Roberto S., 1989. "Predictors in Dynamic Nonlinear Models: Large-Sample Behavior," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 430-452, December.
- Rossana, Robert J, 1995. "Technology Shocks and Cointegration in Quadratic Models of the Firm," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 5-17, February.
- Ando, Albert, 1971. "On a Problem of Aggregation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(2), pages 306-11, June.
- White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-61, January.
- Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation Over Individuals," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1827-74, December.
- Muellbauer, John, 1975. "Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 525-43, October.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, March.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989.
"Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
- M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 485, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Aigner, Dennis J & Goldfeld, Stephen M, 1974. "Estimation and Prediction from Aggregate Data when Aggregates are Measured More Accurately than Their Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 113-34, January.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Lee, Kevin C, 1994.
"Choice between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variables Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 11-21, January.
- Pesaran, M. & Pierse, R.G. & Lee, K.C., 1992. "Choice Between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variable Methods," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9219, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Stoker, Thomas M, 1986. "Simple Tests of Distributional Effects on Macroeconomic Equations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 763-95, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.