IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?

Listed author(s):
  • Monteforte, Libero

The euro area represents a case-study of great institutional relevance for the econometric problem of aggregation bias. The available data can be used to analyze the area either with aggregate or with country-specific models. The choice should be the result of a statistical comparison between the two options, with respect to the specific model. In this paper we suggest a representation of the aggregation error based on unobservable components and explicitly conceived for aggregations over a small number of economies. In the empirical application two alternative models are estimated: the first specifies the main euro countries while the other refers to the whole area. We then evaluate the aggregation error either from the viewpoint of a comparison of the two models with standard methods, or looking at the components of the representation suggested here. Both categories of results indicate non-negligible aggregation errors for the euro area.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(06)00089-7
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 24 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 236-261

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:24:y:2007:i:2:p:236-261
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  2. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
  3. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
  4. Philippe Jeanfils, 2000. "A model with explicit expectations for Belgium," Working Paper Research 04, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Danny Quah & Thomas J. Sargent, 1993. "A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 285-310 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  7. Barrell, Ray & Becker, Bettina & Byrne, Joseph & Gottschalk, Sylvia & Hurst, Ian & van Welsum, Desiree, 2004. "Macroeconomic policy in Europe: experiments with monetary responses and fiscal impulses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 877-931, September.
  8. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October.
  9. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 0195, European Central Bank.
  10. Bernd Hayo & Volker Clausen, 2002. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effects in EMU," Macroeconomics 0203003, EconWPA.
  11. Giacomo Sbrana, 2008. "On the use of area-wide models in the Euro-zone," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 17(4), pages 499-518, October.
  12. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Generale, Andrea & Hernando, Ignacio & Von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Vermeulen, Philip, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0112, European Central Bank.
  13. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Lee, Kevin C, 1994. "Choice between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variables Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 11-21, January.
  14. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  15. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 0004, European Central Bank.
  16. van Els, Peter J. A. & Locarno, Alberto & Morgan, Julian & Villetelle, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Working Paper Series 0094, European Central Bank.
  17. Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
  18. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Giorgio Gobbi & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2004. "The interaction between face-to-face and electronic delivery: the case of the Italian banking industry," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 508, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  19. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2004. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12371, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  20. Andreas Beyer & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Reconstructing Aggregate Euro-zone Data," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 613-624, November.
  21. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
  22. Guiso, L. & Kashyap, A.K. & Panetta, F. & Terlizzese, D., 2000. "Will a Common European Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects?," Papers 384, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  23. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788885, December.
  25. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
  26. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: What Role for National Information?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 457, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  27. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  28. M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 485, UCLA Department of Economics.
  29. Werner Röger & Jan in 't Veld, 2002. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European Commission's QUEST model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 178, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  30. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Mayes, David G. & Virén, Matti, 2000. "Asymmetry and the problem of aggregation in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 11/2000, Bank of Finland.
  32. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
  33. Adalid, Ramón & Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Siviero, Stefano, 2005. "The performance and robustness of interest-rate rules in models of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0479, European Central Bank.
  34. Pesaran, M. H. & Pierse, R. G., 1989. "A proof of the asymptotic validity of a test for perfect aggregation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 41-47.
  35. Ehrmann, Michael & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Martinéz Pagés, Jorge & Sevestre, Patrick & Worms, Andreas, 2001. "Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0105, European Central Bank.
  36. Hunt, Benjamin & Laxton, Douglas, 2004. "Some simulation properties of the major euro area economies in MULTIMOD," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 759-783, September.
  37. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  38. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  39. Philip R. Lane, & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp05, IIIS.
  40. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  41. Aigner, Dennis J & Goldfeld, Stephen M, 1974. "Estimation and Prediction from Aggregate Data when Aggregates are Measured More Accurately than Their Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, January.
  42. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, 04.
  43. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008.
  44. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is It Changing Over Time?," Working Papers 0115, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  45. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten M Sloek, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union; What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
  46. Rudiger Dornbusch & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 6369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February.
  48. De Bandt, Olivier & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2000. "Convergence of fiscal policies in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0020, European Central Bank.
  49. Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
  50. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:54:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Alpo Willman & Ángel Estrada, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-Multi-Country model," Working Papers 0212, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  52. Benedict J. Clements & Zenon Kontolemis & Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under EMU; Differences in the Transmission Mechanism?," IMF Working Papers 01/102, International Monetary Fund.
  53. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  54. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 2002. "Does One Size Fit All? A currency union with asymmetric transmissions and a stability pact," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 71-96.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:24:y:2007:i:2:p:236-261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.