IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v29y2002i1p47-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • David Mayes
  • Matti Viren

Abstract

This paper highlights the implications for EU macroeconomic policy at a relatively disaggregated level when key economic relationships are nonlinear or asymmetric.Using data for the EU and OECD countries we show that there are considerable non-linearities and asymmetries in the Phillips and Okun curves.High unemployment has a relatively limited effect in pulling inflation down while low unemployment can be much more effective in driving it up.Downturns in the economy are both more rapid and sustained in driving unemployment up than recoveries are in bringing it down.There is considerable variety in these relationships and in IS curves across not just countries but also sectors and regions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:29:y:2002:i:1:p:47-73
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1014681414484
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1014681414484
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1014681414484?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1998_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eika, Kari H & Ericsson, Neil R & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 765-790, November.
    3. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    4. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
    5. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 3-22, Fall.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    7. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1999. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 317-334, August.
    8. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, April.
    9. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
    10. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 1999. "Is the short-run Phillips curve nonlinear? Empirical evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 330, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Canzoneri,Matthew B. & Grilli,Vittorio & Masson,Paul R. (ed.), 1992. "Establishing a Central Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521420983, October.
    12. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-336, May.
    13. Anthony Yates, 1998. "Downward nominal rigidity and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 82, Bank of England.
    14. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    16. John Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1999. "Gross job flows between plants and industries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-64.
    17. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
    18. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 16-64.
    19. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus: Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 1995/076, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
    21. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Bruce Hansen, 1999. "Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
    23. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71.
    24. Haldane, Andrew & Quah, Danny, 1999. "UK Phillips curves and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 259-278, October.
    25. Weshah Razzak, 1997. "The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    26. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    27. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1997_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    29. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-445, Oct.-Dec..
    30. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
    31. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    32. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1999. "Is the EMU a viable common currency area? a VAR analysis of regional business cycles," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q IV), pages 2-20.
    33. Chetty, V. K. & Heckman, J. J., 1986. "A dynamic model of aggregate output supply, factor demand and entry and exit for a competitive industry with heterogeneous plants," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 237-262.
    34. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    35. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    36. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    37. Peter Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1996. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 216-251, March.
    38. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    39. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    40. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    41. David Mayes & Bryan Chapple, 1995. "The costs and benefits of disinflation: a critique of the sacrifice ration," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 58, March.
    42. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    43. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Price Rigidities and Market Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 350-355, May.
    44. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 66-113.
    45. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1997. "Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemplyment Costs of Overheating," IMF Working Papers 1997/017, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "A cross-country investigation of macroeconomic asymmetries," Macroeconomics 9809017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 1998.
    47. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
    48. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    49. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July.
    50. Mayes,David G. (ed.), 1996. "Sources of Productivity Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521554374, October.
    51. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni BUSETTA & Dario CORSO, 2008. "La legge di Okun: asimmetrie e differenziali territoriali in Italia," Working Papers 320, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    3. Aki Kangasharju & Christophe Tavera & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Regional Growth and Unemployment: The Validity of Okun's Law for the Finnish Regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 381-395, September.
    4. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    5. Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2007. "Testing for convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 45-61, March.
    6. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Amado Peiró, 2015. "Asymmetry in the relationship between unemployment and the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 683-697, March.
    7. Marco Gross & Willi Semmler, 2019. "Mind the Output Gap: The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation during Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 817-848, August.
    8. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2005. "Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 665-691, October.
    9. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    10. Torój, Andrzej, 2010. "Adjustment capacity in a monetary union: a DSGE evaluation of Poland and Slovakia," MF Working Papers 4, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 11 May 2010.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," NBP Working Papers 86, Narodowy Bank Polski.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David G. Mayes & Matti Virén, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Macroeconomics 0404024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. David G. Mayes & Matti Virén, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Macroeconomics 0404024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mayes, David G. & Viren, Matti, 2005. "Monetary policy problems for currency unions: asymmetry and the problem of aggregation in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 219-251, March.
    7. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Marco Gross & Willi Semmler, 2019. "Mind the Output Gap: The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation during Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 817-848, August.
    9. Harold Ngalawa & Coretha Komba, 2020. "Inflation‐Output Trade‐Off in South Africa: Is the Phillips Curve Symmetric?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 472-494, December.
    10. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    11. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve A Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
    12. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    13. Eric Schaling, 1999. "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England.
    14. Juncal Cunnado & Fernando PErez De Gracia, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: Some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337.
    15. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
    17. Saglio, Sophie & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Introducing price-setting behaviour in the Phillips Curve: the role of nonlinearities," MPRA Paper 46646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
    19. Schaling, Eric, 2004. "The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting: Symmetric versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 361-386, June.
    20. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
    21. Volker Wieland, "undated". "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 11, Society for Computational Economics.
    22. Juncal Cunado Eizaguirre & Fernando Pérez de Gracía Hidalgo, "undated". "Tasa de sacrificio en la UEM: Un análisis empírico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 70, FEDEA.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:29:y:2002:i:1:p:47-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.