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Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal

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  • João Sousa Andrade

    (GEMF and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra)

Abstract

We know from experience that weak economic growth increases the unemployment rate. In 1962 Okun proposed to measure potential output in terms of unemployment gap. From this relation a direct link between increase in unemployment and output growth was deduced, known as the Okun Law. This Law is one of the pillars of empirical macroeconomics. One of the problems of this Law is the iteration between the variables involved and the non-stationarity of these variables. As a consequence we must be careful with the stability and the possible asymmetry of Okun’s Law. We apply these ideas to the Portuguese economy in order to obtain an estimated Okun Law. We can conclude by the temporal stability of a dynamic formulation of the Law, although we also conclude by the presence of an asymmetric behaviour of the Law.

Suggested Citation

  • João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2007-04
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun Law; Cycles; Participation rate; Stability; Asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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