Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal
We know from experience that weak economic growth increases the unemployment rate. In 1962 Okun proposed to measure potential output in terms of unemployment gap. From this relation a direct link between increase in unemployment and output growth was deduced, known as the Okun Law. This Law is one of the pillars of empirical macroeconomics. One of the problems of this Law is the iteration between the variables involved and the non-stationarity of these variables. As a consequence we must be careful with the stability and the possible asymmetry of Okun’s Law. We apply these ideas to the Portuguese economy in order to obtain an estimated Okun Law. We can conclude by the temporal stability of a dynamic formulation of the Law, although we also conclude by the presence of an asymmetric behaviour of the Law.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Av. Dias da Silva, 165, 3004-512 COIMBRA|
Phone: + 351 239 790 500
Fax: +351 239 403511
Web page: http://www.uc.pt/en/feuc/gemf/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campbell, John & Mankiw, Gregory, 1987.
"Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?,"
3122545, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- David E. Altig & Terry J. Fitzgerald & Peter Rupert, 1997. "Okun's law revisited: should we worry about low unemployment?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
- Thurow, Lester, 1983. "Dangerous Currents: The State of Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198771838, December.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Jonas D. M. Fisher & Jeffrey R. Campbell, 2000.
"Aggregate Employment Fluctuations with Microeconomic Asymmetries,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1323-1345, December.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Aggregate employment fluctuations with microeconomic asymmetries," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1996. "Aggregate employment fluctuations with microeconomic asymmetries," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 112, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1996. "Aggregate Employment Fluctuations with Microeconomic Asymmetries," NBER Working Papers 5767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.R. & Fisher, J.D.M., 1996. "Aggreagate Employment Fluctuations with Microeconomic Asymmetries," RCER Working Papers 430, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Perron, P., 1994.
"Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables,"
Cahiers de recherche
9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989.
"A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States,"
8622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Charles Adams & David T. Coe, 1990. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 232-293, June.
- Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
- George A. Kahn, 1996.
"New Estimates Of The U.S. Economy'S Potential Growth Rate,"
Contemporary Economic Policy,
Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, October.
- George A. Kahn, 1995. "New estimates of the U.S. economy's potential growth rate," Research Working Paper 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Nicholas Apergis & Anthony Rezitis, 2003. "An examination of Okun's law: evidence from regional areas in Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(10), pages 1147-1151.
- Gomme, Paul, 1999. "Shirking, Unemployment and Aggregate Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(1), pages 3-21, February.
- Rothman, Philip, 1988.
"Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle,"
88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1997.
"On The Dynamic Properties Of Asymmetric Models Of Real GNP,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 321-352, May.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "On the dynamic properties of asymmetric models of real GNP," International Finance Discussion Papers 489, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert, G. William, 1979. "Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance : A dissenting opinion," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 179-186, January.
- Mayes, David G. & Virén, Matti, 2000.
"Asymmetry and the problem of aggregation in the euro area,"
Research Discussion Papers
11/2000, Bank of Finland.
- David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
- Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
- Kaufman, Roger T., 1988. "An international comparison of Okun's laws," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 182-203, June.
- Perloff, Jeffrey M. & Wachter, Michael L., 1979. "A production function--nonaccelerating inflation approach to potential output : Is measured potential output too high?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 113-163, January.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Hoover,Kevin D., 2001.
"The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521003216, Junio.
- Thor Hultgren, 1960. "Changes in Labor Cost During Cycles in Production and Business," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hult60-1, September.
- D. T. Nguyen & A. Mahinda Siriwardana, 1988. "The Relationship Between Output Growth and Unemployment: A Re-examination of Okun's Law in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 21(1), pages 16-27.
- Evans, George W., 1989. "A measure of the U.S. output gap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 285-289.
- Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1303-23, November.
- Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Susana Botas & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1998. "Estimation of potencial output for the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Bodman, Philip M, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2007-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sara Santos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.