The PIGS, does the Group Exist? An empirical macroeconomic analysis based on the Okun Law
Will the current crisis accelerate the PIGS collapse? We approach the subject by comparing the responses of the unemployment rate to an output shock on those economies (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) with those of a benchmark economy – the USA. Our methodological strategy relies on one of the pillars of empirical macroeconomics the Okun Law (OL) which we incorporated in a VAR model. We addressed two drawbacks usually present in OL, the interdependency problem and the non-stationarity problem. We have included in our models the participation rate as a way to overcome the former problem and for the later one we have analysed the time series properties of the variables used on our models. We propose stable VAR models for each of the economies involved and also a fixed-effects panel-VAR for the PIGS. The time for the absorption of shocks and the disequilibrium levels are much more favourable to USA, but we conclude also that in terms of unemployment we are not allowed to consider the PIGS as a homogenous group.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Av. Dias da Silva, 165, 3004-512 COIMBRA|
Phone: + 351 239 790 500
Fax: +351 239 403511
Web page: http://www.uc.pt/en/feuc/gemf/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995.
"Error bands for impulse responses,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1997.
"On The Dynamic Properties Of Asymmetric Models Of Real GNP,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 321-352, May.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "On the dynamic properties of asymmetric models of real GNP," International Finance Discussion Papers 489, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thor Hultgren, 1960. "Changes in Labor Cost During Cycles in Production and Business," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hult60-1, March.
- Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-45, Oct.-Dec..
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance,"
497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Nicholas Apergis & Anthony Rezitis, 2003. "An examination of Okun's law: evidence from regional areas in Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(10), pages 1147-1151.
- Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
- George A. Kahn, 1995.
"New estimates of the U.S. economy's potential growth rate,"
Research Working Paper
95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- George A. Kahn, 1996. "New Estimates Of The U.S. Economy'S Potential Growth Rate," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, October.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- D. T. Nguyen & A. Mahinda Siriwardana, 1988. "The Relationship Between Output Growth and Unemployment: A Re-examination of Okun's Law in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 21(1), pages 16-27.
- Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
- Elliott, Graham, 1999.
"Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-83, August.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Rothman, Philip, 1991.
"Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
- Rothman, Philip, 1988. "Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle," Working Papers 88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Hoover,Kevin D., 2001.
"The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802727, 1.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- Charles Adams & David T. Coe, 1990.
"A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 232-293, June.
- Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," MPRA Paper 8622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
- Thurow, Lester, 1983. "Dangerous Currents: The State of Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198771838, July.
- Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
- Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert, G. William, 1979. "Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance : A dissenting opinion," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 179-186, January.
- Kaufman, Roger T., 1988. "An international comparison of Okun's laws," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 182-203, June.
- Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- David E. Altig & Terry J. Fitzgerald & Peter Rupert, 1997. "Okun's law revisited: should we worry about low unemployment?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2009-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sara Santos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.