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La legge di Okun: asimmetrie e differenziali territoriali in Italia

  • Giovanni BUSETTA

    ()

    (Universit… di Napoli "Parthenope")

  • Dario CORSO

    ()

    (Universit… degli Studi di Palermo, Centro Interdipartimentale per la Ricerca e il Monitoraggio, dell'Economia e del Territorio)

[ABSTRACT] Okun's law turns out from the relationship between economic growth and unemployment fluctuations of the American economy during the sixties. Following his results several analyses tried to test the empirical relevance of the relation, initially estimated by Okun, for different countries and historical periods. Generally, authors found heterogeneous results in estimating Okun's coefficient, depending on the sample and context analylised. Moreover, recent analyses focused on the influence exerted by asymmetric components on the relation between output growth and unemployment rate. In this paper we propose an application regarding the Italian regions. In particular, we perform a panel analysis in order to estimate the influence of asymmetry and local market differences on Okun's relationship. Moreover, observing particularly low values of participation rate on labor market in southern areas, we propose other indicators more compatible with a delayed development area to estimate Okun's coefficient. [SOMMARIO] La legge di Okun consiste in una relazione empirica che lega le variazioni del tasso di disoccupazione alle variazioni nei tassi di crescita del PIL reale. L'interesse rivolto dalla letteratura economica nei confronti di tale relazione deriva dalle sue implicazioni in termini di politiche macroeconomiche. Molti lavori hanno verificato tale relazione in contesti spazio-temporali differenti. Ne Š emersa una certa variazione del coefficiente stimato, sia in relazione ai diversi orizzonti temporali, che al variare del contesto spaziale di riferimento In aggiunta, soprattutto i lavori piu' recenti hanno concentrato l'attenzione sulla eventuale presenza di componenti asimmetriche nella relazione. L'obiettivo della presente analisi consiste nel verificare la validita' della legge di Okun in Italia a livello sub nazionale, valutando contemporaneamente gli effetti della suddetta componente asimmetrica. Alla base di tale verifica risiede, infatti, l'ipotesi che in Italia siano presenti alcuni di quegli aspetti che lo stesso Okun indicava come probabili cause di una modifica dei risultati ottenuti dalle stime e soprattutto che le diversita', tipiche dei due mercati subnazionali del lavoro, possano condurre a stime significativamente diverse per il Centro-Nord e per il Mezzogiorno.

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Paper provided by Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali in its series Working Papers with number 320.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:320
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  1. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
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  6. Stuart E. Weiner, 1993. "New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 53-69.
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  8. Mayes, David G & Virén, Matti, 2000. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Research Discussion Papers 11/2000, Bank of Finland.
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  14. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, March.
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  17. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
  18. Chinhui Juhn & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 1991. "Why Has the Natural Rate of Unemployment Increased over Time?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 75-142.
  19. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
  20. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
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  22. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-45, Oct.-Dec..
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