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Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries

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  • Freeman, Donald G

Abstract

Okun's Law is one of the most enduring stylistic facts in macroeconomics. This article uses new developments in trend/cycle decomposition to test Okun's Law for a panel of ten industrial countries, finding that Okun's original estimate for the U.S. of three points of real GDP growth for each one percent reduction in the unemployment rate now averages just under two points of real GDP growth for the sample countries. Pooled estimates for Europe are smaller than estimates for the rest of the sample. Also, this article finds that omission of capital and labor inputs may have biased previous estimates. Copyright 2001 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Freeman, Donald G, 2001. "Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 511-523, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:39:y:2001:i:4:p:511-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni BUSETTA & Dario CORSO, 2008. "La legge di Okun: asimmetrie e differenziali territoriali in Italia," Working Papers 320, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Amy Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael Owyang & Tara Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-17, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    3. van Ours, Jan C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so Great," CEPR Discussion Papers 10376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jasper Lukkezen & Coen Teulings, 2013. "Optimal Fiscal Policy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Donald Freeman, 2012. "On (Not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, pages 267-284.
    6. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2008. "Smooth-time-varying Okun's coefficients," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 363-375, March.
    7. Davide Furceri & Ernesto Crivelli & Joël Toujas-Bernate, 2012. "Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 12/218, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    9. Roger, Perman & Jean-Philippe, Boussemart & Walter, Briec & Christophe, Tavéra, 2013. "How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-60, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    10. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    11. van Ours, Jan C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so great," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-12.
    12. Aki Kangasharju & Christophe Tavera & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Regional Growth and Unemployment: The Validity of Okun's Law for the Finnish Regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 381-395, September.
    13. Frenkel, Michael & Lis, Eliza M. & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "Has the economic crisis of 2007-2009 changed the expectation formation process in the Euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1808-1814, July.
    14. Roger Perman & Gaetan Stephan & Christophe Tavéra, 2015. "Okun's Law—a Meta-analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(1), pages 101-126, January.
    15. van Ours, J.C., 2015. "The Great Recession was not so Great," Discussion Paper 2015-006, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Thresholds for employment and unemployment: A spatial analysis of German regional labour markets, 1992-2000," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(4), pages 523-542, November.
    17. Ryan W Herzog, 2013. "An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2504-2517.
    18. Onwachukwu, Chinedu Increase, 2015. "Does Unemployment Significantly Impact on the Economic Growth of Nigeria?," MPRA Paper 66966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ralf Fendel & Eliza M. Lis & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2009. "Do Euro Area Forecasters (Still) Have Faith in Macroeconomic Building Blocks? – Expectation Formation when Economics is in Crisis," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    20. Antal, Miklós, 2014. "Green goals and full employment: Are they compatible?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 276-286.
    21. Ball, Laurence & Jalles, João Tovar & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Do forecasters believe in Okun’s Law? An assessment of unemployment and output forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 176-184.
    22. Islas C., Alejandro & Cortez, Willy Walter, 2013. "An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico's output and unemployment," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    23. PERUGINI, Cristiano, 2009. "Employment Intensity Of Growth In Italy. A Note Using Regional Data," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    24. repec:ilo:ilowps:486701 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Tregenna, Fiona., 2015. "Sectoral dimensions of employment targeting," ILO Working Papers 994867013402676, International Labour Organization.

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