IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

New Estimates Of The U.S. Economy'S Potential Growth Rate




Using an Okun's law framework, the analysis here estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed- and chain-weighted GDP. It then decomposes estimated potential growth rates into labor productivity growth (LPG) and labor input growth (LIG) using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. It compares estimates of potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s with estimates from earlier periods. Results indicate that eliminating the substitution bias associated with fixed-weight measures of real GDP raises estimated potential GDP growth in the 1980s but lowers it in the 1990s. A slowdown in labor force growth, with little or no change in long-term productivity growth, largely accounts for the implied slowdown in potential growth. Copyright 1996 Western Economic Association International.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Kahn, 1996. "New Estimates Of The U.S. Economy'S Potential Growth Rate," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:14:y:1996:i:4:p:1-16

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters,in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael Massourakis & Farahmand Rezvani & Tadashi Yamada, 1984. "Occupation, Race, Unemployment and Crime In a Dynamic System," NBER Working Papers 1256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ann Dryden Witte, 1980. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime With Individual Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 57-84.
    4. Llad Phillips & Harold L. Votey, 1987. "Crimes By Youth: Deterrence And Moral Compliance With The Law," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 5(4), pages 73-90, October.
    5. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    6. Weicher, John C, 1970. "The Effect of Income on Delinquency: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 249-256, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. João Sousa Andrade, 2009. "The PIGS, does the Group Exist? An empirical macroeconomic analysis based on the Okun Law," GEMF Working Papers 2009-11, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    2. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:14:y:1996:i:4:p:1-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.