IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzb/nzbdps/1997-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand

Author

Abstract

New Zealand data show that the inflation-output relationship is asymmetric. This asymmetry implies that positive demand shocks tend to increase inflation by more than negative demand shocks of similar magnitudes reduce it. An important implication of this asymmetry is that a monetary authority with the objective of maintaining the inflation rate within a narrow band needs to react more promptly to demand shocks than otherwise be necessary. Alternatively, policy that is slow to respond to demand disturbances will result in higher inflation, and greater losses of output than would be the case with a linear Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Weshah Razzak, 1997. "The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1997/02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/1997/g97-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
    3. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus: Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 1995/076, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-16.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    6. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Relative Wages, Efficiency Wages, and Keynesian Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 383-388, May.
    8. Santomero, Anthony M & Seater, John J, 1978. "The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off: A Critique of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 499-544, June.
    9. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    10. Brunner, Karl & Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Money and economic activity, inventories and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 281-319.
    11. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    12. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Examining Alternative Macroeconomic Theories," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 207-270.
    13. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
    14. Meltzer, Allan H., 1986. "Size, persistence and interrelation of nominal and real shocks : Some evidence from four countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-194, January.
    15. Hall, Alastair R & Rudebusch, Glenn D & Wilcox, David W, 1996. "Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 283-298, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy: Finland and New Zealand," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    2. Iris Claus, 2000. "Is the output gap a useful indicator of inflation?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Rizki E. Wimanda & Paul M. Turner & Maximilian J. B. Hall, 2013. "The shape of the Phillips curve: the case of Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(29), pages 4114-4121, October.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sadaf Zafar & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Evaluation of Gold Investment as an Inflationary Hedge in Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:118, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    6. Juha Kilponen & David Mayes & Jouko Vilmunen, 1999. "Labour Market Flexibility in Northern Europe," One Europe or Several? Working Papers 2, One-Europe Programme.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Harold Ngalawa & Coretha Komba, 2020. "Inflation‐Output Trade‐Off in South Africa: Is the Phillips Curve Symmetric?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 472-494, December.
    9. Özer Karagedikli & Kirdan Lees, 2007. "Do the Central Banks of Australia and New Zealand Behave Asymmetrically? Evidence from Monetary Policy Reaction Functions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 131-142, June.
    10. Harold Ngalawa & Coretha Komba, 2020. "Inflation, Output and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 398, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    11. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
    12. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland.
    13. Grant Spencer & Ozer Karagedikli, 2006. "Modelling for monetary policy: the New Zealand experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-8., June.
    14. David G. Mayes & Matti Virén, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Macroeconomics 0404024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Forecasting in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 59-85, December.
    17. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy : Finland and New Zealand," Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    18. Angela Huang & Dimitri Margaritis & David Mayes, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from New Zealand," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 175-200, September.
    19. Economics Department, 1996. "Economics Department research over the past year: a review," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 59, September.
    20. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
    21. Sharif, Bushra & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "Estimating the Inflation-Output Gap Trade-Off with Triangle Model in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Mayes, David G. & Viren, Matti, 2005. "Monetary policy problems for currency unions: asymmetry and the problem of aggregation in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 219-251, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Gross & Willi Semmler, 2019. "Mind the Output Gap: The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation during Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 817-848, August.
    2. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    3. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Recent developments in monetary policy analysis: the roles of theory and evidence," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 67-96.
    5. Wimanda, Rizki E. & Turner, Paul M. & Hall, Maximilian J.B., 2011. "Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 426-438, May.
    6. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Daniel Goldstein, 2012. "One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 401-431, March.
    8. Robert Amano & Donald Coletti & Tiff Macklem, 1998. "Monetary rules when economic behaviour changes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    9. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "The Inflation-Output Trade-Off with Downward Wage Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1436-1466, June.
    10. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Mar), pages 43-56.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    12. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.
    13. Kevin S. Nell, 2000. "Is Low Inflation a Precondition for Faster Growth? The Case of South Africa," Studies in Economics 0011, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    14. Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 621-639.
    15. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    16. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Peter Bofinger & Eric Mayer, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 291-305, July.
    18. Schaling, E., 1998. "The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting - Symmetric Versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules," Other publications TiSEM d6b03994-a406-4ac5-9c4d-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Davide Delle Monache, 2021. "Domestic and Global Determinants of Inflation: Evidence from Expectile Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 982-1001, August.
    20. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1997/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.