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The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand

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Abstract

New Zealand data show that the inflation-output relationship is asymmetric. This asymmetry implies that positive demand shocks tend to increase inflation by more than negative demand shocks of similar magnitudes reduce it. An important implication of this asymmetry is that a monetary authority with the objective of maintaining the inflation rate within a narrow band needs to react more promptly to demand shocks than otherwise be necessary. Alternatively, policy that is slow to respond to demand disturbances will result in higher inflation, and greater losses of output than would be the case with a linear Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Weshah Razzak, 1997. "The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1997/02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy: Finland and New Zealand," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    2. Iris Claus, 2000. "Is the output gap a useful indicator of inflation?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Rizki E. Wimanda & Paul M. Turner & Maximilian J. B. Hall, 2013. "The shape of the Phillips curve: the case of Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(29), pages 4114-4121, October.
    4. Sadaf Zafar & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Evaluation of Gold Investment as an Inflationary Hedge in Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:118, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    5. Juha Kilponen & David Mayes & Jouko Vilmunen, 1999. "Labour Market Flexibility in Northern Europe," One Europe or Several? Working Papers 2, One-Europe Programme.
    6. Harold Ngalawa & Coretha Komba, 2020. "Inflation‐Output Trade‐Off in South Africa: Is the Phillips Curve Symmetric?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 472-494, December.
    7. Özer Karagedikli & Kirdan Lees, 2007. "Do the Central Banks of Australia and New Zealand Behave Asymmetrically? Evidence from Monetary Policy Reaction Functions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 131-142, June.
    8. repec:aer:wpaper:398 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
    10. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland.
    11. Grant Spencer & Ozer Karagedikli, 2006. "Modelling for monetary policy: the New Zealand experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-8., June.
    12. David G. Mayes & Matti Virén, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Macroeconomics 0404024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Forecasting in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 59-85, December.
    14. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy : Finland and New Zealand," Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    15. Economics Department, 1996. "Economics Department research over the past year: a review," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 59, September.
    16. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
    17. Sharif, Bushra & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "Estimating the Inflation-Output Gap Trade-Off with Triangle Model in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Angela Huang & Dimitri Margaritis & David Mayes, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from New Zealand," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 175-200, September.
    19. Mayes, David G. & Viren, Matti, 2005. "Monetary policy problems for currency unions: asymmetry and the problem of aggregation in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 219-251, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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