Modelling for monetary policy: the New Zealand experience
This article is an edited version of a paper written for the Centre of Central Banking Studies' Chief Economists Workshop in London in May 2006. The article reviews the evolution of modelling at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from the 1970s to today, focusing on the changing role of inflation expectations. It discusses the impact of theoretical developments on the evolving approach to monetary policy and the models that have been built to support policy. The article highlights the important impact that the Lucas critique has had on both monetary policy, and the Bank's approach to modelling.
Volume (Year): 69 (2006)
Issue (Month): (June)
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- Robert J. Barro, 1976.
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- Weshah Razzak, 1997. "The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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- Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
- Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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